A drive-by election indicator

I have the document that Karl Rove would kill for -- the skeleton key to the 2004 election. It is a complete geographical breakdown, by city, of Toyota Prius sales since 2001. The Prius is Toyota's gas-electric hybrid compact car, which has been for sale in the United States for nearly four years, and the connection is obvious, especially if Howard Dean becomes the Democratic candidate for the presidency. I can tell you right now the 10 largest cities that Dean will carry, because there is practically a 1-to-1 overlap between loony-left, tree-hugging Prius owners and delusional Deanies. I say "practically" a perfect overlap because I am a Prius owner eager to vote for Ralph Nader again. That is, unless Bill Belichick enters the race.

Here are the 10 metropolitan areas with the largest concentration of Priuses, cities that would "go Dean" in November: 1. San Francisco/Silicon Valley; 2. Los Angeles; 3. Washington, D.C.; 4. Seattle/

Tacoma; 5. Greater Boston; 6. New York; 7. Chicago; 8. Portland, Ore.; 9. Sacramento; 10. Philadelphia. You will notice zero Sunbelt cities and zero cities below the Mason-Dixon line. That's pickup country, and no amount of Rebel Yelling is going to bring those voters to the Dean bandwagon.

Curb your enthusiasm Do Larry David and Arianna Huffington know about this? Of course not -- they are celebrity Prius drivers who live in balmy Los Angeles. But the Prius -- Motor Trend's Car of the Year for 2004, lest we forget -- has an unpleasant secret for owners in New England and other cold-weather climes: lousy winter gas mileage.

In a nutshell, my car has been averaging around 33 miles per gallon since December, versus a more impressive 45 before that. (During the recent super-deep freeze, it was down to 27 miles per gallon.) My dealer blew me off, so I took my problem to the Prius cultists at a Yahoo! newsgroup. The main issue, they explained, is that the Prius uses its gasoline engine to warm up the catalytic converter, which is of course cold in the winter. This takes about 15 minutes, rendering the first quarter-hour of driving quite fuel-inefficient. Normally the gas engine turns off and on, working in tandem with the car's electric engine, and that's how it gets the amazing fuel efficiency.

If you understand statistics (and I don't), you know that the first 15 minutes of operation wouldn't affect the mileage much during a 100-mile drive. But the pre-2004 Priuses are underpowered vehicles best suited for commuting, hence the bad winter mileage. I ran my gripes by Toyota spokesman Wade Hoyt, who initially responded that all cars experience a 15 to 20 percent decrease in gas mileage during the winter, which didn't sound right to me or to one of our auto writers.

But shouldn't the slick-o Prius marketing campaign warn cold-weather drivers that they won't get anything near the 52/45 city/highway miles per gallon that the car advertises? Hoyt's response, via e-mail: "By court order, all carmakers are only allowed to advertise the EPA label values. The EPA tests are conducted at 72 degrees F., and therefore reflect summer driving. That's why the EPA findings carry the required `your mileage may vary' advisory."

In a follow-up message, Hoyt conceded that "it seems that cold weather has a more noticeable effect on hybrid fuel economy than on that of conventional cars." Something to keep in mind when Toyota starts hyping its hybrid SUV, the Highlander, for next year.

Power gals The Irvine, Calif.-based Ayn Rand Institute joins William Safire and other practiced contrarians in rooting for Martha Stewart in her upcoming trial. Robert Tracinski, a senior writer at the ARI, notes that Martha "has already been convicted in the court opinion."

"There is only one explanation," Tracinski rattles on. "The cause for Martha-hatred is the ugly motive of envy. Martha Stewart is hated because she stands too high above the crowd, because she is `too perfect.' " More from this statement: "These ugly and vicious attacks against Martha Stewart are not isolated events, but part of a large and dangerous trend in America: the culturally-sanctioned envy and hatred of successful people."

So get with the program: Stop knocking my main men George Bush and Michael Jackson. You're just jealous!

Alex Beam is a Globe columnist. His e-dress is beam@globe.com.