As resources wane, rush of primaries provides new test

Cash-strapped Democratic presidential candidates face a costly new phase in the campaign beginning this morning that will strain their resources beyond anything they have yet experienced.

On Tuesday, seven more states hold primaries or caucuses. The price tag is about $1.5 million for a modest amount of television advertising in all of them over the course of the week.

Senator John F. Kerry's campaign is counting on the double victories in Iowa and New Hampshire to prime the pumps for fund-raising heading into the Feb. 3 cluster of contests in seven far-flung states.

Coming out of New Hampshire, none of the campaigns is flush with cash. Even Howard Dean's, which raised a record $40 million in 2003, last week took TV advertising off the air in several states that vote next week, pausing to conserve money until this week.

Despite his record-shattering success at raising money last year, Dean acknowledged money is tight in an interview with CNN on Monday.

"I think the money situation's tough for everybody," said Dean, whose campaign broke spending records in Iowa and also carries by far the field's largest payroll, with a staff of more than 400.

Steve Grossman, Dean's campaign chairman, said that while he did not know precisely how much cash was on hand, the campaign was "not in bad shape at all" financially.

Kerry and Senator John Edwards, both of whose fund-raising efforts were starting to flatline late last year, reported income spikes after their one-two finish in Iowa. Both now have Internet operations that rival Dean's. Retired General Wesley K. Clark's campaign, which bypassed Iowa and also has a strong online collection system, says it continues to hit aggressive fund-raising targets. Senator Joseph I. Lieberman's campaign has "husbanded its resources" to compete on Feb. 3, targeting Delaware and Oklahoma, spokesman Jano Cabrera said.

Every campaign will burn through money over the next week. After that, the front-loaded schedule only gets worse, as contests begin to pile up in states where the TV markets are more expensive.

"It will be absolutely brutal if you try to do everything," said Steve Murphy, who managed the campaign of Representative Richard A. Gephardt, who dropped out after a fourth-place finish in Iowa last week. "Practically, you've got to pick your spots."

Gephardt's withdrawal has complicated the seven-state Feb. 3 scenario, because Missouri, his home state and the day's biggest prize with 74 delegates, is suddenly in play.

The countdown to 2,159, the number of delegates needed to win the nomination, now begins in earnest, with 269 delegates up for grabs on Tuesday, about four times the number in Iowa and New Hampshire combined.

With back-to-back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, Kerry may be best positioned financially for Feb. 3, despite ignoring next week's states for months while concentrating on the initial contests. Kerry has already pumped into his campaign $6.4 million of his own money, and will be helped by the fact that donors love a winner. Moreover, the candidate has the wherewithal to borrow an undisclosed additional sum if needed, an aide said.

Momentum and news coverage now become driving factors. After Iowa, Kerry's poll numbers began to jump in South Carolina, another of next Tuesday's battlegrounds. The other states up for grabs are Arizona, New Mexico, and North Dakota.

"We'll compete in every state" next week, Kerry campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill said yesterday. The campaign, which announced yesterday that it will run TV ads in all seven Feb. 3 states, can afford the $1.5-million TV buy, Cahill said. North Dakota, a caucus state, is the only bargain. For about $42,000, a campaign can buy enough air time so that the average viewer will see a spot a dozen times.

Missouri, by contrast, will cost any campaign about $400,000 to reach a significant -- but not overwhelming -- number of voters. But the major markets of St. Louis and Kansas City extend into neighboring states, so the candidate will get additional exposure there. Kerry is making a major push into Gephardt country, locking up some key endorsements and hiring experienced operatives on the ground. Kerry's first stop out of New Hampshire will be St. Louis today, followed by Greenville, S.C., according to a tentative itinerary released early this week.

The Edwards campaign has bulked up in the past week in Oklahoma and Missouri, sending in ground troops and paid staff. "We have enough money to compete through Feb. 3 and beyond," said Roger Salazar, spokesman for the campaign. "Like every other campaign, we'll be adjusting our flight plans with each election day."

From New Hampshire, Edwards was flying to South Carolina, a must-win state for the North Carolinian. His first event today will be at South Carolina State University in Orangeburg, the alma mater of Representative James E. Clyburn, the state's preeminent African-American political figure. Clyburn endorsed Gephardt and is now being wooed by the other candidates, none more ardently than Edwards. The candidate then has two stops each in Oklahoma and Missouri, then returns to South Carolina.

Clark's campaign has been on the air in most of the Feb. 3 states, and the candidate plans events today in South Carolina, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Arizona, an aide said. That's about 3,000 miles of air travel in a day.

Dean's campaign was the only one that had not released a post-New Hampshire itinerary as of late yesterday. Despite a big investment in South Carolina since last fall, the former Vermont governor is expected to focus heavily on the Southwest. Arizona, with 55 delegates, is the second-biggest prize of the day, and New Mexico is probably Dean's best chance of a win on Tuesday, according to Murphy, Gephardt's manager.

"Dean needs a win somewhere on Feb. 3 to hang his hat on," Murphy said, to keep him moving into Michigan and Washington state, two big caucus states that vote on Saturday, Feb. 7, four days after next Tuesday's cluster. Murphy said Dean is well organized in both states.

"Of all the states coming up in the next 10 days, Michigan is the strongest state for Dean and he's also strong in Washington," Murphy said. But a poll conducted last week showed Kerry up in Michigan after the Iowa win.

In Michigan, 128 delegates will be at stake; in Washington, 76.

For candidates still standing after Feb. 7, there will be no rest for the weary. A series of nine contests loom in the ensuing three weeks. If the Southerners, Edwards and Clark, survive Feb. 3, there could be a showdown in Dixie on Feb. 10, when Virginia and Tennessee hold their primaries.

Contests extend all the way into June, but the big harvest is March 2 -- 10 states, coast to coast, with 1,151 delegates at stake, a quarter of the total in a single day. It takes 2,159 delegates to win the nomination.

Topping the list are California and New York. Cost of a basic one-week TV ad campaign in those two states is about $4 million combined. Ohio ($600,000) and Georgia ($480,000) would add another $1 million-plus to the media tab.