S.C. seen largely up for grabs
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- The Democratic presidential contest heads for warmer climes today -- notwithstanding the freak ice storm that paralyzed a huge swath of South Carolina Monday and forced last-minute travel changes on the campaigns.
The weather isn't the only unpredictable factor the candidates will face in this state, the first in the South to cast ballots this primary season. South Carolina has been on candidates' radar screens for more than a year, yet none of them has found a way to become the overwhelming favorite of the white moderates and deeply religious black voters who will determine who wins here on Feb. 3.
South Carolina is close to a must-win for two candidates: Senator John Edwards and retired General Wesley K. Clark. Both are banking on their ability to emerge as the favorite candidate in the South, and that mantle can't realistically be shared. Edwards grew up in rural South Carolina and represents North Carolina in the Senate; his campaign contends it has the best ground operation in the state. As the son of a mill worker, he'll be making highly personal appeals to South Carolina residents who have watched manufacturing jobs disappear in recent years, with unemployment pushing close to 20 percent in some counties.
Clark also had a humble Southern upbringing, in Arkansas, and he has a military background that could be attractive to the large number of veterans in the state. Both he and Edwards have made frequent trips here in recent months, and both are scheduled to spend much of their time in the final week before the primary in the Palmetto State.
While Senator John F. Kerry indicated early on that he would campaign aggressively in South Carolina -- he announced his candidacy Sept. 2 from a decommissioned aircraft carrier docked in Charleston -- he pulled up stakes in South Carolina in the fall in an effort to gain momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire. Kerry hasn't stepped foot in the state since Sept. 12, and his South Carolina operation had as few as four staff members.
But a poll released over the weekend by the American Research Group showed Kerry within striking distance of Edwards in South Carolina, with Kerry at 17 percent and Edwards at 21 percent. Now, the Vietnam vet will be appealing to veterans, showing off Senator Fritz Hollings's endorsement, and spending at least two days in the state.
Former governor Howard Dean of Vermont showed early strength in South Carolina, but his support has dissipated along with his numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire, and Dean will be scrambling to recapture some of that early magic. Senator Joseph I. Lieberman hopes his moderate message and religious values will resonate with voters here and in Oklahoma, which will also vote on Tuesday.
No candidate has spent more time in South Carolina than the Rev. Al Sharpton, and while he has virtually no chance of winning, he could play spoiler to one candidate or another.
The American Research Group poll showed Sharpton with 15 percent support, in third place and ahead of Clark's 14 percent and Dean's 9 percent.
The campaigning here is complicated by the fact that South Carolina is new terrain for Democratic presidential candidates in primary campaigns. While the Republicans' South Carolina primary has long been vital, the Democrats have only had a primary here once before, in 1992, and South Carolina wasn't vital to Bill Clinton's nomination.
Rick Klein can be reached at rklein@globe.com. 
