New Dean strategy raises eyebrows

MILWAUKEE -- As Howard Dean saw his standing rise in polls last summer and his face show up on the covers of national newsmagazines, the former Vermont governor and his staff settled on a strategy for winning the Democratic presidential nomination.

Flush with an unexpected flow of cash from enthusiastic Internet supporters, they decided to pour resources into Iowa and New Hampshire, hoping back-to-back wins in the first two presidential states would break his rivals, clearing a path to victory.

Today, his bank account nearly drained by his go-for-broke strategy, his political viability in question after consecutive losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, Dean has settled on a new strategy.

It not only contradicts his earlier one, but it also defies conventional political wisdom and marks another attempt by his unconventional campaign to plow a new course to the presidency.

Dean has retooled his operation to sustain an election presence, perhaps on as little as $1 million a month, a big step down after spending virtually all of the $41 million he raised last year. His goal is not to steamroll his rivals, but to outlast them, hoping for a one-on-one shot at the front-runner, Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, before Kerry wins enough delegates to be nominated.

Dean now says he is not concerned about early wins, conceding again yesterday that he may not win any of the seven primaries and caucuses tomorrow.

At this point, Dean's sole focus is on accumulating delegates, primarily enough to win the convention's nomination, but if not, then to shape the Democratic platform heading into a fall showdown with President Bush.

Dean said yesterday on NBC's "Meet the Press" that he would quit if someone else secures the nomination. "I'm not going to do anything that's going to harm the Democratic Party," he said.

Dean and his new campaign chief, former Gore and Clinton aide Roy Neel, have declared Feb. 17 -- when the Wisconsin primary puts 72 delegates at stake -- as the first marker by which the campaign should be measured. Even then, Dean said the truest look at his candidacy may not come until a round of primaries and caucuses March 2 and March 9.

"As a strategy, it is a loser's strategy," said Stuart Rothenberg, an independent political analyst in Washington. "It assumes you can resurrect a campaign three weeks, five weeks, seven weeks from now, that you will have enough resources, enough enthusiasm, to make that happen. Each week it gets harder to demonstrate that you're a serious candidate and people aren't wasting their votes by voting for you."

Steve Murphy, who managed the unsuccessful campaign of Representative Richard A. Gephardt, said: "As a strategy, it's positively bizarre; as spin, it's the best he's got."

In several conversations with reporters in recent days, Dean has insisted he has not shifted to a protest or scorched-earth candidacy. Instead, reflecting his pugnacious style, he says he is soldiering on to put a new face on the Democratic Party, regardless of whether the early returns suggest voters believe someone other than he should lead it into the general election.

"To suggest that anybody ought to drop out of the race after 10 percent of the delegates are selected is ridiculous," Dean said yesterday after he met with black leaders in Milwaukee and before he headed to services at a nearly all-black church. "I think the people of Wisconsin ought to have some say in who the next president is."

Speaking earlier on "Meet the Press," Dean said: "If we get blown out again and again and again . . . if somebody else gets more delegates and they clinch it, of course I'm not going to go all the way to the convention just to prove a point, but I'm going to be in this race as long as I think I can win. And I have always said that I don't think this race is going to be decided until after March 2 or perhaps March 9 or even later than that, and we're going to do everything we can to stay in."

Yet by starting out as a candidate aiming to clear the field, and then arguing that he should not be considered a sore loser by remaining a candidate with more losses than wins, Dean has raised questions within the Democratic Party and among some supporters about whether his ultimate achievement will not be victory, but the weakening of the party nominee.

Democratic chairman Terry McAuliffe has said that any candidate who has not won an election should rethink his candidacy after seven states vote tomorrow. Andrew Stern, president of the 1.6 million-member Service Employees International Union, which has endorsed Dean, said any candidate who does not win a primary or caucus tomorrow "was going to have a hard time winning the nomination."

Murphy, who worked on the 1980 and 1988 Democratic presidential campaigns with Joe Trippi, Dean's campaign manager until resigning last week, said Dean cannot simply dismiss his expected losses tomorrow, because he had good organizations and previously advertised in each of the seven states.

"That kind of defeat will cause him to lose [Saturday] and trigger a lot of defections," Murphy said, referring to Michigan and Washington caucuses. "All these high-powered Democrats who jumped on board are going to jump off and push him out of the race. He's not a viable candidate, and the party is in the midst of building a consensus around John Kerry as its most viable candidate."

In unveiling their hang-tough strategy, Dean and Neel have argued that early losses should not be held against a candidate. Dean also referred to his lead in delegates, based on his support by elected officials who are automatically delegates to the nomination convention in Boston.

Speaking yesterday with reporters, Dean said: "The most important thing is to have the most delegates. As of today, we have more delegates than any other candidate. We're going to continue to work for delegates. The person with the most delegates on July 25th becomes the Democratic nominee and the next president of the United States."

Glen Johnson can be reached at johnson@globe.com.