Foes seek to stem Kerry tide

TUCSON -- Striving to keep their presidential hopes alive, the opponents of Senator John F. Kerry are relying more heavily than ever on the core advantages that have powered their campaigns so far, hoping to perform well enough in today's seven elections to make it to larger states a month from now.

Former governor Howard Dean is counting on his cybernetwork to stockpile enough advance votes in Arizona, New Mexico, and, later, Michigan, to combat Kerry's momentum among those walking into the voting booth.

Retired General Wesley K. Clark is staging events with former colleagues in the military-heavy states of Arizona, Oklahoma, and South Carolina, and sending volunteers from his home state of Arkansas across the border into Oklahoma.

John Edwards, whose Southern roots are a big part of his claim to electability, is rallying local officials in must-win South Carolina, where he was born.

All the campaigns are trying to avoid the nightmare scenario of a Kerry sweep -- a circumstance that would almost certainly lead Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, to call on some of the candidates to get out of the race.

If all or some of Kerry's rivals can stay alive until the large, delegate-rich states which begin having primaries on March 2, however, they might, with a single victory in a state like California or New York, get what they need.

"I think we'll lose at least one of the top four as a result of the elections today," said Tom Volgy, a former Tucson mayor and political science professor who is aligned with Dean. "The list of viable candidates is going to get whittled down."

As he did in Iowa and New Hampshire, Kerry appears to be closing on an upswing in Arizona -- one of several large states that went for President Bush in 2000 but are leaning more Democratic today. A poll published yesterday in the Arizona Republic showed Kerry securely in the primary lead, with 32 percent to Clark's 19 percent.

Kerry's sun-drenched rally at a large public park in Tucson yesterday was an attempt to inspire those who might be wavering, and he seemed to accomplish his goal.

Just like in Iowa and New Hampshire, people who described themselves as late-deciding voters were turning his way, not with enormous enthusiasm, but with a quiet satisfaction that he's the man to beat Bush.

"I was leaning toward Dean or Clark, but now I think Kerry's hitting on the issues where we need to be," said Donna Wangler, a Democratic state committee member from Tucson.

That's bad news for Dean, who had built a powerful organization in Arizona, attracting more than 2,000 volunteers. Some of those volunteers still seem shocked that Dean is no longer in the lead, and even his local director is not promising a win.

"Had the election been held in mid-December, we would have had all the votes," said Frank Costanzo, Dean's state director in Arizona, who is also in charge of the the candidate's efforts in New Mexico and Oklahoma.

Costanzo notes that the weather in Arizona is predicted to be unusually stormy today, bringing snow to higher-elevation towns, and turnout could be below 120,000. The Dean campaign, Costanzo said, mailed 23,000 absentee ballots to people requesting them, not all of them Dean supporters.

"We have 23,000 ballots out," Costanzo said. "That doesn't mean they're all for Howard. We hope they're all for Howard."

The Dean campaign sent ballots not only to its identified supporters but to undecided voters, hoping they would go for Dean. But the ballots arrived the day after the Iowa caucuses, when Dean's overheated concession speech was dominating the news.

Michigan, which allows Internet voting, plays to Dean's cyber-savvy organizational strengths. But as of this week, only 17,000 voters, out of an expected overall turnout of 400,000 for Saturday's caucuses, had voted early.

"I think it's going to help," said Daren Berringer, Dean's Michigan state director, adding that the online option frees up Dean supporters to concentrate on get-out-the-vote activities.

Clark, meanwhile, has aimed his Arizona campaign at the many military retirees in the sunny valleys surrounding Phoenix and Tucson.

After trying to showcase his knowledge of domestic policy in New Hampshire, Clark has fully embraced his military past, appearing at rallies with veterans across the South and West, including a full day of campaigning with a comrade who saved his life in Vietnam.

Edwards has little presence in Arizona, registering only 6 percent in the Arizona Republic poll. In Missouri, once thought to be an opportunity for him, he trails Kerry badly in polls.

That leaves South Carolina. If Edwards prevails in his native state, Clark picks up Oklahoma, and Dean does well enough in Arizona and New Mexico to give him a chance Saturday in Michigan, Kerry could yet be in for a race, according to Volgy and other analysts.

Then again, none of these states look like sure bets for Kerry's rivals.

"I thought I was going to support Clark but I went to see him and felt he didn't have the depth of experience on domestic issues," said Tucson City Council member Carol West, describing just the kind of last-minute conversion that has wrecked the best efforts of all the campaigns except Kerry's.

"I'm going to have to toss a coin -- but I think I'll vote for Kerry," West said. "The bottom line, for me, as with most Democrats, is who can best beat George Bush. And with his war record and all, Kerry will be a strong candidate."

Mary Leonard of the Globe staff contributed to this report.