Dean tells supporters it's Wisconsin or bust

MILWAUKEE -- The once-soaring presidential campaign of Howard Dean, still searching for its first win, sent an e-mail to supporters yesterday seeking donations and saying that a loss in the Feb. 17 Wisconsin primary would effectively end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination.

In a sign of the urgency he is attaching to the primary, Dean cut short yesterday a visit to Michigan -- a delegate-rich state he focused on in the past week instead of campaigning vigorously in the seven states that held primaries and caucuses Tuesday -- and headed to Wisconsin.

Dean's new campaign chief, Roy Neel, said the candidate's e-mail triggered hundreds of thousands of dollars in contributions. At the same time, he hedged on the e-mail appeal, saying Dean would not necessarily quit the race should he lose in Wisconsin.

"The e-mail stands by itself," Dean said last night during a news conference just minutes after his return to Wisconsin. "I think it was a brilliant ploy, and I certainly stand by it, but we're going to do what we said in the e-mail: We're going to win here."

Asked what made the missive a "brilliant ploy," the former Vermont governor said, "The decision to take a stand in Wisconsin and fight with everything we have there, I think is brilliant." He added: "My definition of a `ploy' is a strategy."

By placing such high stakes on Wisconsin, the Dean campaign appears to be shifting messages. The candidate had previously declared he was in the race until at least March 2. But the high-risk e-mail was sent a day after labor leaders told Dean he was in danger of losing their backing if he did not post a win after nine consecutive primary and caucus losses, and as Dean sought a spark for an increasingly demoralized staff and flagging legion of supporters.

"The entire race has come down to this: We must win Wisconsin," said the e-mail sent overnight to supporters under Dean's name. "We will get a boost this weekend in Washington, Michigan, and Maine, but our true test will be the Wisconsin primary. A win there will carry us to the big states of March 2 -- and narrow the field to two candidates. Anything less will put us out of this race."

The e-mail included a personal solicitation in which the former Vermont governor asked for $700,000 in contributions to air campaign commercials in Wisconsin beginning Monday. His Web-savvy supporters immediately responded, pledging $559,000 by 7:30 last night.

At midafternoon, Dean's aides announced he was canceling an evening appearance in Detroit and a visit this morning to Ann Arbor, Mich., so he could fly to Milwaukee for a pair of events that had yet to be scheduled. Minutes later, during a conference call with reporters, Dean refused to answer questions about the e-mail -- drafted by his staff but sent out with the electronic signature "Governor Howard Dean, M.D." -- and whether Wisconsin had now become a do-or-die state for his campaign.

"It's `do,' " he said. "We're going to win."

After Dean left the call, Neel, his new campaign chief executive officer, took over and insisted donors had not been misled and reporters had simply misread the e-mail.

"I don't think that e-mail says that if he loses Wisconsin he will get out of the race," Neel said. "The fact is that the e-mail was designed to convey the sense of urgency we have to take the fight to Wisconsin."

Dean's departure from Michigan, which holds its caucuses tomorrow, came two days after he said on national television that he would not win in the state. It also came hours before he was to appear at a candidate forum in Detroit. Throughout the day, Dean's staff grew less interested in attending after learning it would not attract the entire field of Democratic candidates, as expected, only Al Sharpton of New York.

Asked about the schedule change, Neel said: "We're putting our schedule where our mouth is. We're getting to Wisconsin. We're starting this fight right now there."

Dean took aim at the Democratic front-runner, Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, during his news conference in Wisconsin: "Our decision to fight here and to win here is made because we believe that people are voting for Senator Kerry without knowing anything about him. This is going to be a fully contested, fully fought-out primary. The first one since Iowa and New Hampshire, and we're going to make every attempt we possibly can to make sure that people know exactly who they're voting for."

"There's a really clear difference in our record here and a real clear difference in our characters here," he added, "and we're going to have a fight, and it's going to be in Wisconsin, and we're going to win."

Neel first cited Wisconsin as a pivotal state for the campaign on Jan. 30, when he wrote his first e-mail to supporters after his hiring prompted the resignation of campaign manager Joe Trippi. With 72 delegates at stake, the Wisconsin primary comes two weeks before the March 2 "Super Tuesday" contests, in which 10 states -- including California, New York, and Massachusetts -- will award 1,151 delegates.

William Schneider, an independent political analyst at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, said Dean's focus on Wisconsin was both smart politics and the first public sign that Dean has begun to acknowledge the long political odds now confronting his campaign.

"Practically, if he doesn't win Wisconsin, I don't see how he goes on," Schneider said. "I think he's just realized that he has to say to his supporters, `It's time to put up.' That's the only way he can raise money."

The Dean campaign is attempting to frame the ongoing race in its most favorable terms. Wisconsin is known as the home of outspoken, progressive figures like Dean, including William Proxmire, the former senator famous for his "Golden Fleece" awards excoriating wasteful government spending. One of its current US senators, Democrat Russell Feingold, voted against both the Iraq war and Patriot Act, putting him in synch with Dean's positions on the campaign trail.

The campaign e-mail came as Dean found himself confronted with dwindling crowds and an ever-diminishing traveling press corps. His first event yesterday, a town hall meeting at the University of Michigan in Flint, attracted about 100 people and featured an awkward moment in which the candidate, a nonpracticing physician, was asked to hold up a bumper sticker and make an appeal for a local blood drive.

Later, he moved to the Detroit suburb of Royal Oak and had a larger audience, although it numbered no more than 200 people. In each location, Dean highlighted his 11-year tenure as Vermont governor and a record that included 12 consecutive balanced budgets and the expansion of medical insurance to all children under 18. He contrasted that with the congressional records of his rivals, repeatedly singling out Kerry by name and inference.

"If you elect a Democrat, we'll all be better off, but if you elect me, we'll all have health insurance, and that is not true of any of the other folks running," he said in Flint. "One of them introduced 350 bills; three of them have passed. We can do better."

Later, in Royal Oak, he said: "People think that sitting on committees for 19 years, that that's experience. Well, I think that's good exercise for the jaw, probably it's some fairly reasonable exercise for the ears for those who choose to listen. . . . I think we need a doer, not a talker, to take on George Bush."

Dean has not aired television commercials since the New Hampshire primary because his campaign wanted to reserve its dwindling funds -- estimated at $3 million by some counts -- for the Super Tuesday voting.

Glen Johnson can be reached at johnson@globe.com.