Trailing candidates counting on delegate math

MEMPHIS -- Their chances, at first glance, look increasingly bleak; they have carried one state, or none, while John F. Kerry has racked up 10 wins in primaries and caucuses. But the campaigns of Wesley K. Clark, John Edwards, and Howard Dean are taking comfort in a concept they hope will be more potent than momentum: arithmetic.

The hunt in the Democratic nomination contests is a battle over many things, including credibility, policy issues, and fund-raising strength. But at its core, it is a fight for the delegates who will head to Boston for this summer's Democratic National Convention, to cast their roll-call ballots for a presidential nominee. In all, 3,520 "pledged" delegates will be elected this spring; a candidate needs 2,162 to win the nomination. For several campaigns, the ups and downs of a bruising month do not change the basic math: The 20 primaries and caucuses held through Feb. 24 will apportion 888 delegates. On March 2, 1,151 delegates will be up for grabs.

Such is the power of Super Tuesday, when 10 states hold their primaries, including delegate-rich California and New York. A week later, five other states and territories will vote, including Florida and Texas, with 468 more delegates at stake. It is enough to give hope to a candidate who otherwise looks like a long shot.

"We're following the NCAA basketball tournament strategy: Win and move on, and keep playing until you get to March Madness," said Chris Lehane, a strategist for Clark. The Clark campaign is hoping to survive, until then, on the limited momentum and fund-raising power it could get from winning a few isolated states. Last week, Clark won Oklahoma by a hair; today, he is banking his hopes on the Tennessee primary.

Former Vermont governor Dean has told supporters he is counting on winning Wisconsin next Tuesday to sustain him until Super Tuesday but that he will stay in the race regardless.

"I'm only about 200 delegates behind John Kerry, maybe a little bit more, but I'm second in delegates right now," Dean said yesterday. "I think a win in Wisconsin would allow every state in Super Tuesday to take a second look. My great fear is that John Kerry may not be the strongest nominee against George Bush. . . . And so, all I want to do is make sure we nominate the strongest person."

Edwards, who won South Carolina decisively last Tuesday, also hopes to emerge in March as the challenger to Kerry left standing.

"We have a long process going on here," Edwards said yesterday. "What we have been preparing for the entire time is a nominating process that is going to go on well into March."

But some political observers say the Democrats' rules still favor a Kerry juggernaut because the delegate hunt is not a winner-take-all affair. Instead, delegates are doled out proportionately, so a candidate need not win a state outright to pick up a few delegates for his scorecard.

"It makes it very difficult for those who really fall behind in the delegate race to catch up," said Anthony Corrado, a professor of government at Colby College in Waterville, Maine. "This is the problem Howard Dean has. Kerry is going to be winning delegates all along, even where he doesn't win."

According to Democratic National Committee rules, each state elects several statewide delegates but apportions most according to congressional district. If a candidate receives 15 percent or more of the vote in a district, he is certain to get at least one delegate.

Also at stake are about 802 "superdelegates," mostly party leaders and current or former top elected officials who are free to choose which candidate to support -- and free to change their minds at any time.

While Kerry won more than 50 percent of the overall vote in Delaware, the Rev. Al Sharpton -- who fared well in some locations -- walked away with one of the state's 15 delegates. Sharpton's campaign also has touted the eight delegates it won Saturday in Michigan, after a strong showing in Detroit's caucuses. His campaign said it plans to concentrate on winning delegates in urban areas across the country.

But the rules also mean that on March 2 it is unlikely that one candidate will walk away with all of California's 370 delegates, or all of New York's 236. To Kerry, that would not pose a major setback, given his lead. But for Dean, Clark, and Edwards, divided states could make the difference between catching up to Kerry and lagging far behind.

In addition, Corrado said, Kerry enjoys another advantage: By scoring big in a single state, as he did last weekend in Michigan and Washington, he is able to accumlate delegates more quickly, preventing other candidates from reaching the 15 percent threshold. The longer that Clark, Edwards, and Dean remain in the race, the better chance that the non-Kerry votes will be split. And Kerry is most likely to rack up decisive wins, Corrado said, because he has enough money to run television ads and do other kinds of campaigning in every state.

The other contenders have skipped several states to conserve the money in their waning war chests.

The opportunity to win delegates district by district has caused dissension within campaigns, as strategists battle over where to apply scant resources. A Clark insider last week lamented the campaign's decision to ignore Missouri and Washington entirely, saying ad campaigns in localized media markets could have yielded results without costing too much and could have kept Clark from trailing Edwards in the delegate count.

Still, Corrado said it is hard to pick up significant numbers of delegates in a piecemeal way, in large part because of this year's compressed calendar for nomination contests. Last year, only eight states held elections between the New Hampshire primary and Super Tuesday. This year, 18 primaries and caucuses come in quick succession. That has allowed Kerry to capitalize on the momentum of each race, Corrado said, and it means there is less time for scrutiny from the media or attacks from rivals to take hold.

But several candidates are taking some comfort in the calendar. After an expected hard-fought Wisconsin election next Tuesday, the race will a relative lull; only Hawaii, Idaho, and Utah will vote, with 61 delegates total at stake. That could be the time, some strategists hope, that an attack on Kerry sinks in or voters decide to take a second look before the avalanche of primaries in March.

Glen Johnson and Raja Mishra of the Globe staff contributed to this report. Joanna Weiss can be reached at weiss@globe.com.