Political spotlight finally shines on Nev.
LAS VEGAS -- There are but 22 delegates at stake tomorrow in Nevada's Democratic caucuses. In the state's largest region, Clark County, organizers say attendance by a mere 1,000 of the more than 250,000 registered Democrats would be considered record-breaking. And the outcome is such a foregone conclusion that top supporters of former Vermont governor Howard Dean and North Carolina Senator John Edwards already are conceding a likely loss to front-runner John F. Kerry.
Yet, if the contest tomorrow seems inconsequential and predictable, appearances in the state by both Kerry and Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie in the days leading into it reflect that the nation's fastest-growing state is poised to play its most significant role ever in a presidential election.
Historically, Nevada has gone Republican in every presidential race since 1964, except for Bill Clinton's victories in 1992 and 1996, when third-party candidate Ross Perot siphoned off votes from the GOP nominees. But in another nod to how painfully close the 2000 election was -- Republican George W. Bush beat Democrat Al Gore by 3.6 percent of the vote in Nevada -- neither campaign is taking chances on the Silver State's five electoral votes.
The state is considered a tossup, largely because it is evenly divided between registered Republicans and Democrats and has some of the nation's fastest-growing populations of retirees -- many of them conservatives from California -- as well as union workers -- many of them Democrats. In addition, some observers think Bush will be harmed by his support for placing the national nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain near Las Vegas, seen as a wedge issue that could bring fence-sitting Republicans to support a Democratic candidate who has opposed the dump site.
All this means more attention from the parties and the candidates than ever before, analysts and campaign operatives say. Several Democrat-aligned special interest groups already are focusing on the state. The liberal MoveOn.org, for instance, bought local television advertising time during the Super Bowl in Nevada and four other states to air an anti-Bush commercial -- depicting children working to pay off the federal deficit -- that the NFL and CBS refused to broadcast nationally during the game.
Kerry is scheduled to appear at a rally at a high school and then a reception at a private home tonight, followed by a visit to the Clark County caucus meetings tomorrow. He sent former Housing and Urban Development secretary Henry Cisneros earlier this week to address a Hispanic business group in Las Vegas.
"Nevada is a major battleground state in November," said Billy Rogers, state coordinator for Dean's campaign, who acknowledges he expects Dean to show poorly in Nevada tomorrow. "If Democrats can win Nevada, they're in pretty good shape in the national election. It is extremely important."
The Republicans think it is important, too. The Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign opened a headquarters in Las Vegas, the first time a Republican ticket has opened such an office in the state since Reagan-Bush did so in 1984.
Gillespie's visit yesterday, at which he rallied Bush-Cheney campaign workers and then flew to Reno to speak at a dinner, is more evidence of an increased GOP preoccupation with the state. Vice President Dick Cheney was in Las Vegas last month to raise $100,000 for US Representative Jon Porter, Republican of Nevada, and George H. W. Bush, the former president, spoke in Reno in late January at the Safari Club International convention. Yesterday, it was announced that Laura Bush will travel to Las Vegas next Thursday.
"We've become a lot more relevant after what happened in the 2000 election, and both Democrats and Republicans are starting to account for the importance of electoral votes in smaller states," said Republican activist Steve Wark, who is running antigay activist Richard Ziser's campaign to unseat Senator Harry Reid, Democrat of Nevada. "They're not taking any votes for granted. Obviously, you're not going to spend as much time in Nevada as you would in Florida, but you're going to see more money and a lot more organizational effort coming to Nevada."
The rise of Nevada as a presidential player also denotes the fall of the stigma around being associated with a state known for vices like gambling. Although no candidates will be seen meandering through a casino chatting with blackjack dealers and cocktail waitresses the way they would be seen engaging a lift operator on a car factory floor in Detroit, the lure of hitting the Vegas fund-raising jackpot is great.
Kerry is likely to harp on the Yucca Mountain issue. Bush fast-tracked the site and pushed it through Congress in 2002 after promising during the 2000 campaign to wait until studies were completed on its structural viability, but Kerry has consistently voted against the dump for decades. "People are starting to understand that the president can kill Yucca Mountain and that Bush lied to Nevadans," state Democratic Party spokesman Jon Summers said. "They're seeing there's hope that a Democratic president, with a stroke of a pen, can end the Yucca Mountain project."
But the Yucca issue, while important to Nevadans, has rarely turned many votes in presidential races, said Jon Ralston, a columnist for the Las Vegas Sun. Still, Ralston added, Bush has come to Nevada only once since his election and offered no local media access during that appearance last November so as to avoid tough questions about the change in his Yucca stance.
Of course, Kerry needs to actually win the delegates necessary for the nomination, so his visit is partly aimed at ensuring his momentum remains intact. 