Wisconsinites wonder whether their votes matter

MILWAUKEE -- As they campaign in Wisconsin, former Vermont governor Howard Dean insists the state's voters will have a voice in picking the Democratic nominee and Senator John Edwards of North Carolina urges locals to halt the "coronation" of Senator John F. Kerry.

But Geri Smith, 55, of Racine, has deep doubts about how much of a difference she and other Democrats who have not yet voted can make. Kerry's recent electoral steamrolling makes his nomination virtually certain, she says, and her vote largely inconsequential.

"Iowa, New Hampshire, their votes mattered more," said Smith. "It certainly takes some of the fun out of it."

Kerry has not yet secured the nomination, and competition for votes here has been vigorous in recent days, with Edwards and Dean both hoping for strong showings. But Kerry's string of victories in the 3 1/2-week-old primary season looms large. Dozens of potential Wisconsin voters interviewed over the last week have said they think his nomination is inevitable, dampening their enthusiasm for voting. Some have questioned the fairness of the primary process and its domination this year by Iowa and New Hampshire, which set Kerry on his way.

And voter discontent could spread beyond this state: Upcoming votes in Florida, California, New York, and dozens of other states already seem somewhat superfluous given Kerry's recent electoral dominance.

The Democratic Party deliberately scheduled a fast sequence of primaries between mid-January and March. The goal was to settle quickly on a nominee, leaving the spring and summer to raise funds and set strategy for the fall challenge to President Bush. But critics of the process have said the schedule leaves too little time to consider the candidates. Kerry's Iowa and New Hampshire wins, they say, dominated the news, giving him, in one short week, insurmountable momentum.

That's not a problem to Kerry partisans, of course, or to Democrats who simply want the most electable candidate.

"Some people say it's too bad that Iowa and New Hampshire made the decision. But I think Kerry is a good candidate," said Terry Lynch, 65, of Racine. "Let's just get behind him and push forward. It's more important to get Bush out of office."

The Edwards and Dean campaigns privately worry that Kerry's aura of inevitability will guarantee his win here on Tuesday. Both see strong finishes in Wisconsin as crucial to their campaigns.

For the past week, Dean has tried to stoke any fear Wisconsinites may have about being marginalized, warning that journalists are trying to end the race before the public has a chance to have its say at the ballot box.

"Over the next few days, the power to make this country great again is in your hands," he said yesterday before a crowd at the Grand Opera House in Oshkosh. "The media would like to end this candidacy. . . . They say your voice doesn't matter, they say your vote doesn't count, they expect you to rubberstamp the choice of others."

Dropping his voice, he concluded: "You don't have to listen to them."

Both Dean and Edwards are counting on Wisconsin's reputation for favoring mavericks. Indeed, studies of the electorate here have shown voters tend to base their election decisions on the issues, a habit political scientists call "sincere voting."

At least that's how Wisconsin used to be. John McAdams, a professor of political science at Marquette University, says the state's reputation for political sincerity is "overblown."

"Wisconsin is much less distinctive than people have said. Its independence has long been exaggerated," he said. "The bottom line is that Wisconsin is like most other states."

McAdams said the aura of inevitability around Kerry could affect voter turnout. "A lot of people may stay home. It's the logical response to that perception," he said.

Nevertheless, Edwards has been campaigning hard here -- and Dean, once the leader in Wisconsin polls, remains popular in the crucial urban areas of Madison and Milwaukee.

"If there is enough of a perception of a race, then turnout will be decent," said McAdams.

Laurie Luepke, a registered nurse from Oshkosh, took her 15-year-old daughter Margaret out of high school to watch Dean's morning speech yesterday.

"I think there is an energy, and I do feel that the primary is important," she said. But Luepke expressed concern about the front-loaded primary calendar, saying, "It seems to start up so quickly and then people lose interest because they make up their minds so quickly."

Margaret Manley, 43, of Racine, also expressed frustration with the process just minutes before Edwards spoke at a Racine community center yesterday.

"What's the sense in having a right to vote? . . . It's still a campaign, I hope," she said. "I hope people don't vote for Kerry because it looks like a landslide. That's lame."

Edwards, in almost every speech here, has insisted to those gathered that the nomination process remains "a campaign, not a coronation." But privately, aides say, he is frustrated that Kerry's recent victories have overshadowed his candidacy. Edwards staff members say they think his chances will be bolstered by the fact that he has a full week to campaign here before the vote, a luxury not available since the New Hampshire primary. Most voting days since Jan. 27 have involved multiple states, forcing candidates to split their time and money.

Daisy Fosco, 83, of Kenosha, said despite Kerry's lead, she will cast her vote for Edwards.

"I think every vote counts," she said. "I don't know how other people feel. I'm going to vote for what my heart says."

And young Brandon Actkins, 18, of Racine, defended the importance of his first vote: "It's not over until all the votes are counted."

Raja Mishra can be reached at rmishra@globe.com. Glen Johnson can be reached at johnson@globe.com.