Even in victory, Kerry's caution is seen as risky

HIGHLAND HILL, Ohio -- Presidential candidate John F. Kerry notched victories in the Utah primary and Idaho caucuses yesterday, and sought more good fortune in the Hawaii caucuses.

In all three states, Kerry skipped campaigning, relying on his appeal as the Democratic front-runner to overcome the risks in his ongoing strategy of protecting his lead through fund-raising, party-building, and stage-managed events.

Several political analysts said that while the campaign's ground game has always reflected the taciturn nature of its candidate -- nuanced attacks on rivals, kitchen-sink explanations of policy -- Kerry's drive toward the nomination has become far more cautious than earlier in the winter when he was the race's scrappy underdog.

The dangers in this approach, analysts said, are that Kerry is not sharpening his campaign style or reaching out more to swing voters and Republicans, because he faces little pressure from his rivals and has focused so much on shoring up the Democratic base. Over the last two weeks, Kerry has put himself mostly in front of friendly audiences, like labor union supporters in Ohio and African-American politicians in New York, or scheduled light political trips like last weekend's visit to Georgia, where he held a news conference shortly before the late-night news, then went to church the next morning and to a town-hall forum packed with hundreds of supporters.

"This new strategy is awfully risky: Kerry needs all the campaign practice he can get if he's going to beat Bush," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "The problem is, he doesn't see that. Successful candidates tend to think they're better than they are. But Kerry is focusing mostly on Democrats still, and he needs more experience reaching out to swing voters and Republicans."

Neither Kerry nor his main opposition in the Democratic contests, Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, campaigned in the three states that held contests yesterday. Last night, Kerry sought to prevail in all three states, which would raise his winning streak to 18 of the 20 primaries and caucuses held so far.

While his run of victories would encourage the average front-runners to play it safe, several political analysts said, neither Kerry nor this winter's nomination race is typical. Kerry still faces a wily and energized foe for his party's nod in Edwards, and Kerry has shown himself at his most outgoing and direct with voters when he feels challenged, the analysts said. The primary schedule has been so compressed this year, too, that Kerry has emerged as the prohibitive favorite quickly without being battered by rivals, and Edwards has pledged to run a "positive" campaign.

"Kerry has adopted a new strategy of not making any mistakes because the party is effectively closing ranks around him and his campaign thinks if he can stay on message, he will win," said Ronald Walters, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland at College Park.

Yet Walters said that Kerry faces trouble over time, arguing that the campaign's message has yet to galvanize "grass-roots voters" among African-Americans and gays and lesbians, as well as among other traditional Democratic blocs. As evidence, Walters noted that Kerry talks about poverty but not many other urban ills that many African-Americans face. Walters also said Kerry has been vague about his position on a proposed Massachusetts constitutional amendment that would ban gay marriage.

"It seems as if John Kerry has probably calculated that he doesn't need to speak to those constituencies as long as his message of getting Bush out at any cost continues," Walters said. "But it could come back to bite him in the general election once he really needs these people."

Yesterday, as he has in recent days, Kerry kept his focus on job creation and "fair trade" agreements during two campaign stops in Ohio, which, along with nine other states, holds Democratic primaries on Tuesday. Kerry toured a closed steel mill in Struthers, Ohio, with three employees of a nearby titanium plant who have been locked out in a fight over benefits and salaries.

The men, joined by two union officials, discussed the loss of factories in the area and the outsourcing of jobs overseas.

"There are things we can do about it," Kerry said. "We can't save every job, we can't stop every plant closing in the face of a bad economy. But there are things you can do about it." He cited incentives for industry restructuring and worker retraining, and tougher trade protections.

Later, Kerry led a question-and-answer forum with workers at a Youngstown manufacturing plant, where the senator drew polite applause at points but also some lengthy silences. He answered seven questions over 27 minutes; three of his answers lasted more than five minutes apiece.

Before attending a rally last night in Highland Hill that drew about 800 people, Kerry assailed Bush for attacking the Massachusetts senator on Monday night as a flip-flopper on taxes, the Iraq war, and other issues. "I think the president is a walking contradiction," Kerry said.

He also took a rare jab at Edwards for suggesting yesterday, through an Ohio supporter, that the two men hold a debate in this state before its primary Tuesday. "Sounds like a little grandstanding to me," Kerry said.

Patrick Healy can be reached at phealy@globe.com.