In industrial heartland, voters could turn Nov. election

CLEVELAND -- Even as John Kerry yesterday appeared poised to claim the biggest prizes on Super Tuesday -- California and New York -- John Edwards criss-crossed Ohio carrying the same message that led to his surprising finish in Wisconsin two weeks ago: jobs.

Kerry doesn't have to win Ohio, home of blue-collar Democrats and Main Street Republicans, to secure his party's nomination, but a weaker-than-expected showing here would carry serious implications for the general election.

Ohio will be as much of a crucible as Florida in November, and a major downturn in industrial manufacturing has fueled Democratic hopes in a state that President Bush won by only 3.6 percentage points in 2000.

But with its older voters radiating both anxiousness and a knowing cynicism about politicians who bear magical fixes for industrial decline, the Democrats can't count on anyone pulling a lever simply in the name of change.

"I think the Democrats in Ohio want these industrial jobs back, and that's not the future," said Linda Young of Cleveland, who voted for President Bush in 2000 but is eager for a new economic message. "The future is education, so we can attract high-tech jobs."

William H. Frey, a noted demographer and visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, believes that Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are unique exceptions to the growing red-

state/blue-state divide in American politics, and that the 2004 election will be won in the industrial Midwest. "I think if Kerry does not win [the primary] in Ohio, that would be a warning bell," said Frey. "I would say it would show that he can't take national ads and paste them across the Midwest and expect they'd fly."

Voters in Cleveland, one of Ohio's Democratic strongholds, seemed equally skeptical of Kerry's and Edwards's plans, but Kerry was getting more scrutiny because he is the presumed nominee.

"Kerry's a good guy, but I'd rather see him from North Carolina," said Jeff Gross, a middle-aged accountant and longtime Democrat. "I'm going to vote for Edwards because Edwards has a better chance of winning."

Kerry has most of the institutional support, including that of the leading unions, which carry significant sway within the state Democratic Party. Kerry has offered proposals to discourage out-sourcing of jobs, from elimination of tax benefits to corporations locating overseas to requiring a notification period for companies to alert workers if their jobs are being moved out of the country.

Edwards has emphasized passion over policy, attacking Kerry's vote in favor of the North American Free Trade Agreement and stressing his empathy with factory workers, stemming from his own working-class roots in North and South Carolina.

Yesterday, his last chance to campaign before voters in 10 states head to the polls, Edwards chose to make his stand in Ohio, speaking in Toledo, Vandalia, and a late-afternoon visit to Cleveland.

With attention on the Democratic race, Republicans have been eager to get their message out, too, in a place where economic issues predominate but cars and convenience markets in even the poorest neighborhoods still fly American-flag banners proclaiming "Support Our Troops."

The latest Ohio Poll showed Bush with a popularity rate of 49 percent, a figure that each party was spinning for its own purposes. The state Republican Party chairman Bob Bennett has noted it could be a lot worse, given that Democrats have been advertising for weeks here and the Republicans are only now preparing to go on the air. The fact that Bush retains the approval of almost half the voters, despite the onslaught, suggests his backing is durable.

But Democrats note that Bush's popularity spiked even higher in Ohio than the rest of the country during the Iraq War, approaching 90 percent, and the 49 percent figure is merely the latest downward tick of a slide.

"Democrats might have a bit of an edge because of the economy, but I wouldn't count Bush out in Ohio," said Frey, the political demographer.

Traditionally, Ohio has been such a centrist state that it carried a reputation as a national bellwether. It remains closely balanced between registered Democrats and registered Republicans, but the GOP currently has all the major officeholders. The state Democratic Party is in some disarray, with its leading candidate for the US Senate criticizing its lack of grass-roots organizing.

But Frey, for one, notes that while the closeness of its political battles may reflect national divisions, Ohio is anything but typical. "It's at the end of a major migration to other parts of the country," he said, noting that many young college graduates headed to the coasts and joined the so-called creative classes, helping to make such states as California and New York more heavily Democratic. Meanwhile, suburban families with children opted for better job prospects in the Sun Belt, making such states as Texas more heavily Republican.

Of those remaining in Ohio, 34 percent of voters are whites over 45 who lack a college education, compared with, for example, 17 percent in California.

"It's an older population that could turn either way," said Frey. "They're not getting bluer. They're not getting redder. They're just becoming older."

Peter S. Canellos can be reached at canellos@globe.com.