Kerry has time on his side in VP selection
Choice often near date of convention
WASHINGTON - After a week in which Vice President Dick Cheney lambasted John F. Kerry's national security judgment and some supporters grumbled when he took the Republican bait by blasting back, the question confronting Kerry today is whether he should accelerate his search for a running mate to get his own Dick Cheney by his side.
Despite the intensity of the presidential race, however, the presumptive Democratic nominee appears unlikely to speed up his methodical quest for the right partner on the ticket.
Kerry has steadfastly refused all comment on the subject, but in recent weeks the search has moved into a more concrete phase. James A. Johnson, the Washington investment banker who is doing most of the legwork, has asked several potential candidates to undergo formal evaluations.
Those on the list include US Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri and Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa, as well as Senator John Edwards of North Carolina. While there were some tough exchanges between Kerry and Edwards, as well as their staffs, during the primaries, many of Edwards's top deputies have since joined the Kerry campaign. Miles Lackey, Edwards's chief of staff, is now Kerry's deputy campaign manager. David Ginsburg is reprising his role in the communications shop, and Jennifer Palmieri, who was Edwards's spokeswoman, is about to assume that role for Kerry in the key battleground of Ohio. Also, Wendy Button, who wrote speeches for Edwards, is now doing so for Kerry.
Johnson also met recently with Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, while Kerry has met with other prospects such as Governor Edward Rendell of Pennsylvania and Senators Bob Graham and Bill Nelson, both of Florida, and Dick Durbin of Illinois, during his campaign trips across the country.
This week, Kerry visits the home states of two more prospective nominees, Governor Janet Napolitano of Arizona and Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico.
It is unclear who among them, if any, has also been asked to proceed to the evaluation phase, and the choice of Graham or Nelson, for example, could be undercut by their residency in a state with a Republican governor. Democrats believe they have a chance to at least gain a 50-50 split in the Senate this fall, but control of the chamber would be threatened if a Democratic senator was elevated to vice president and a Republican governor picked someone from the GOP to replace him.
For those being formally reviewed, the process is rigorous, according to several people familiar with it.
Like Kerry in 2000, the candidates have been asked by the campaign to supply a sheaf of documents, including copies of their past speeches, legislation, tax returns, medical records, military records, and college transcripts. They are also being asked to sit for a series of interviews, at least three in one case, and their family members are also being interviewed by teams of lawyers. Those involved believe different teams are being used for each prospective pick. The candidates themselves have been hiring lawyers to advise them during the process.
All the information is being compiled into binders for Kerry's review. Besides Johnson, those expected to be included in the final review are the senator's wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry; his brother, Boston lawyer Cameron F. Kerry; his campaign manager, Mary Beth Cahill; his Senate chief of staff, David McKean; and perhaps one or two other top campaign aides, including media consultant Bob Shrum.
The initial phase of the search included meeting with congressional leaders and various Democratic constituencies, such as leaders of the Congressional Black Caucus. There, Johnson heard suggestions such as Franklin Raines, who holds Johnson's old job as chairman of the
Various women's groups have also suggested a host of female leaders, including Napolitano and Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, as well as former governor Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, who now serves as national chairwoman of Kerry's campaign. Names floated from within the Senate include Senators Dianne Feinstein of California, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
None of the last six vice presidential choices in both the Democratic and Republican parties has been announced before July of an election year. One choice, Dan Quayle, the 1988 Republican selection, was not revealed until Tuesday of convention week, Aug. 16, 1988. Another, Jack Kemp, the 1996 Republican pick, was not announced until Aug. 10, 1996, the Saturday before the Republicans gathered in San Diego for their nominating convention. Democrat Bill Clinton didn't pick Al Gore to be his running mate until July 9, 1992.
In the past, such announcements have been held to attract media attention and generate a public opinion "bounce" heading into and coming out of a convention. The primary issue this time around is whether the already swift pace of the 2004 campaign presents reason enough for Kerry to abandon tradition, make an early announcement, and allow Americans to take a long, hard look at the team he proposes to replace Cheney and President Bush.
Two can also cover more ground than one when it comes to fund-raising and campaigning.
"This is a unique general election in that it was fully engaged, at a September or October pitch, in April," said Anita Dunn, a political strategist who was communications director for former Senator Bill Bradley during his 2000 presidential campaign.
"There are some people who live in targeted Senate race states who have had to go through this -- the nonstop advertising and back-and-forth between the candidates -- but never has the whole nation gone through this so early," Dunn said.
While some Democrats believe Kerry would benefit from an early selection, two factors lessen the urgency.
On the fund-raising front, Kerry has excelled, even without a running mate to help him cover the rubber-chicken circuit. On Friday his campaign announced it had already achieved its goal of raising $80 million for the pre-convention period, nearly three full months before the Boston gathering. About 400,000 people have contributed, and $36 million arrived via donations through the Internet.
And as for gaining a partner who could answer the Republican attacks while leaving Kerry free to speak in more positive, visionary terms, the Kerry campaign has developed a surrogate speaking program that taps people such as Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, to answer on the senator's behalf. McAuliffe has already branded Bush "AWOL" over questions about gaps in his Texas Air National Guard service record.
Last week, McAuliffe preempted Cheney's criticism by declaring the vice president had "zero credibility" to challenge Kerry because, while defense secretary, the vice president proposed cutting some of the same weapons systems as had the senator.
A Democrat close to one of the prospective vice presidential choices argued against an early pick, saying Kerry had yet to finish introducing himself to the American people. The campaign apparently concedes that, planning next week to begin airing a TV ad focused on the senator's biography. One Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said a group supporting Kerry's candidacy recently convened a focus group in Ohio and the participants literally sat on the edge of their seats as the group ran test ads explaining the senator's background.
"Outside Iowa and New Hampshire, some people don't even know he was a veteran," the Democrat said of Kerry, a decorated combat veteran in the Vietnam War.
Another Democrat with long experience in dealing with Kerry said, "He's never in his life made an important decision before the 11th hour and 59th minute. Maybe people have convinced him that he should do that early, but there may be other people who have convinced him he needs a convention bump."
Dunn, the Washington political strategist, said she suspects that ultimately, neither the calendar nor the potential Electoral College votes that a No. 2 could deliver will affect Kerry's choice. She noted that Cheney hailed from Wyoming, with only three wlectoral votes, while Gore came from Tennessee, not much different from Clinton's southern homestead of Arkansas.
"If you look at the last two vice presidents, neither of them was picked because of the electoral map and both of them were picked because of personal chemistry and because both [presidential] candidates felt the person could be a president if need be," she said.
"The vice president has become a key and integral player in the government, starting with Walter Mondale, and now Gore and Cheney have shown the vice president can be the most senior of senior people on the team," she said. "A standard has been set, at some level, about the level of competence and experience and gravitas you want."
Wayne Washington and Susan Milligan of the Globe staff contributed to this report. Glen Johnson can be reached at johnson@globe.com.
