Edwards influence in South contested

WASHINGTON -- Brimming with confidence, Kerry officials have set their sights on the Republican South in recent days, predicting that the populist, folksy appeal that John Edwards brings to the Democratic ticket will draw support away from President Bush in some of his most reliable states.

Senator John F. Kerry launched an advertising campaign in North Carolina yesterday, and his aides circulated a local poll showing Bush only 5 percentage points ahead there even before the hometown senator joined the presidential race. ''Bush-Cheney is in a dead heat against Kerry-Edwards in North Carolina," said a new Democratic National Committee announcement, timed to coincide with a Bush visit to Raleigh that was planned before the Edwards announcement.

But little empirical data exist proving that a Democratic Southern strategy is poised to make major inroads; Republicans and, privately, several Democrats said they did not expect Edwards to make much impact in such a solidly Republican region beyond his native North Carolina. Although Kerry has spent time and money in Louisiana, Virginia, and Arkansas, the polls there do not indicate much difference from four years ago, when Bush swept all three states.

At the same time, senior Bush officials have developed their own Southern strategy against Kerry and Edwards -- hammering them hard on core conservative issues such as abortion and national defense, accusing them of betraying military families by voting against an $87 billion funding bill for Afghanistan and Iraq, and ridiculing them for pretending to embrace ''conservative values."

A senior Bush official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Kerry's bid for Southern support ''gives us a chance, when he pokes his head up, to say: 'You know, you're against the tax cut. You voted against the partial birth abortion ban. You voted against parental notification [on abortion]. You're wrong on the flag. You're a liberal, and you're from Massachusetts.' "

Bush, fielding questions from reporters during his North Carolina trip, sought to draw distinctions over social values, although he did not get into specifics. ''I believe that I did well in the South last time," Bush said. ''I'll do well in the South this time because the senator from Massachusetts doesn't share their values, and that's the difference in the campaign."

That Bush would bother to criticize the presumptive Democratic ticket so quickly after it was formed is a sign of ''panic," senior Kerry adviser Tad Devine said. ''The fact that the President of the United States is personally taking swipes at the Kerry-Edwards ticket a mere day after it was announced speaks volumes," Devine said in a statement. ''There's a reason that George Bush is vulnerable in states like North Carolina and it's because he has failed to address the job losses that have devastated the textile industry there, choosing instead to attack his political opponents."

At a broader level, Kerry spokesman Michael Meehan said it is telling that Bush and his advisers would immediately focus on social issues as their key to victory in the South, when so many polls indicate that the top two issues for voters nationwide are the economy and Iraq.

From a polling standpoint, Bush still seems to have a solid hold on most of the South, which he won in its entirety in the last presidential race. A statewide poll in North Carolina published on June 22 indicated that Bush was ahead by just 5 percentage points, 47 to 42 over Kerry -- figures that Kerry advisers touted yesterday, noting that with Edwards on the ticket, their chances are almost certain to improve.

But Bush advisers noted that Bush had the same lead over Al Gore in North Carolina at this point in 2000, and then went on to win the state by 13 percentage points. Republicans also argue that Edwards only won his Senate seat narrowly, and probably would have lost it if he had run for reelection this year.

Elsewhere in the South, Kerry advisers say they have seen some positive signs in Louisiana and Arkansas, but strategists in both parties disagree about how much room for movement there really is in either state.

A poll in Louisiana this May indicated Bush had a 6-point lead; two other public polls in Louisiana gave Bush a 14- to 19-point edge.

Kerry continues to run advertising in Virginia, and is, according to one adviser, ''keeping an eye on" Tennessee. But strategists on both sides said they did not truly put either state in the ''competitive" category, and there are no polls that indicate a close race.

Both Florida and West Virginia are evenly split, but the debate there is over how to label them: To many, neither Florida nor West Virginia really qualifies as the South.

Anne E. Kornblut can be reached at akornblut@globe.com.