Edwards's message may fail to reach voters angry on Iraq

MILWAUKEE -- John Edwards last week burned through his staple set of domestic policy plans at a fund-raiser here, but didn't raise the roof until he promised that if the Democrats take back the White House, "no American goes to war needlessly."

Sedate until then, the crowd began stamping feet and chanting, including Kathy Bond, 60, who never gave politics much thought until the Iraq war spurred her to become active in the Democratic party.

"The war. This election is all about the war," said the suburban Milwaukee resident. Iraq, Bond said, dominates political discussion in all her social circles.

And that might spell trouble for the senator from North Carolina.

Kerry campaign officials plan to send Edwards campaigning in small towns and rural areas throughout the Rust Belt and the Midwest, where they reason working class swing voters will warm to his Southern-tinged economic populism.

However, the economy, even in some of these swing states, is beginning to look up. Instead, polls show the Iraq war and terrorism -- issues that were not central to Edwards's platform during the primaries -- are the top concern among many voters.

With war and terrorism eclipsing the pocketbook issues in these quarters, Edwards's core message may not carry as far as the Kerry campaign had hoped. And some analysts warn that his youthful charisma and slim foreign policy resume may appear shallow beside Vice President Dick Cheney's decades of experience in political and military affairs.

"Sure, some people in Wisconsin have been losing jobs. But in fact the unemployment rate here is half a percent below the national average. We've been making a transition into high-tech jobs," said John McAdams, a political scientist at Marquette University here.

"So perceptions of the war in Iraq will become much more important. More important than John Edwards," McAdams continued. "His virtues are he is affable, likable, and earnest. But his limitations are that he's relatively young and inexperienced in foreign affairs."

Wisconsin, which Democrat Al Gore took by about 6,000 votes in the 2000 presidential race, offers a template for the challenges facing Edwards this fall.

The Democratic vice presidential pick had one of his most impressive primary performances here, only narrowly losing to Kerry in February at a time when the Massachusetts senator was effortlessly piling up landslide wins elsewhere.

When asked what he would emphasize in Wisconsin campaign stops, Edwards said "kitchen-table issues" like health care and jobs, as well as "keeping America safe."

"I think, though Wisconsin will be a competitive state, we will do very well here," he said.

But even Bond, proudly wearing a Kerry-Edwards pin, wondered about the Democratic ticket's foreign policy prescriptions after listening to Edwards speak for 10 minutes, mostly on domestic topics.

"They have to come out with some definitive ideas. I don't think they're there yet," she said.

To be sure, Edwards's charms can still light up crowds in the Badger State, and his new pitch includes repeated mentions of Kerry's mantra of creating "a stronger America."

Yesterday, before about 1,500 people gathered outside a community center here, he drew cheers for pledging to bridge the nation's political divide, as his two young children frolicked on stage in "Cheesehead" hats. But during his 20-minute address, he never said the words "Iraq" or "terrorism," only indirectly alluding to them twice.

"That concerns me," said Jim Heck, 45, of Wauwatosa, Wis., afterward. "He should be stressing the war more . . . more and more people are worried about it."

Some recent polls in swing states show Kerry with a slight lead over Bush in Pennsylvania, Iowa, and West Virginia, and Bush ahead in Ohio and Wisconsin. But all of those states still appear to be in play.

A University of Wisconsin poll taken last month found 47 percent of those surveyed giving Bush's overall performance excellent or good marks, the lowest level of his term.

But 54 percent gave his terrorism policies high marks. And an April poll by the university found that Wisconsin residents, when asked which candidate would most likely improve the economy, gave Bush the edge over Kerry.

That positive sign for the president may have been driven by good recent economic news here, which overall has fared poorly under Bush's presidency.

On July 15, state officials reported that 3 million residents were employed, an all-time high for Wisconsin. They found that almost 62,000 new jobs had been created here between May and June, the biggest spike in over a decade. In the last three months, nearly 20,000 manufacturing jobs were created, the most productive quarter in that sector in seven years, though it still suffered a net loss of more than 80,000 jobs over the Bush presidency.

Edwards, therefore, will be making his economic case in Wisconsin when the local economy appears, after several years of hurt, to be surging.

The outcome in Wisconsin may be determined in the very areas where Edwards plans to campaign hard: small working-class towns along Lake Michigan.

In 2000, Bush narrowly won the industrial cities of Sheboygan, Green Bay, and Racine, while Al Gore prevailed in Kenosha. This area, which has the state's heaviest population concentration outside of liberal Milwaukee and Madison, contain many of the swing voters Edwards will target: blue-collar families who lean conservative on social issues but favor Democratic economic policies.

"Edwards was able to come across as more conservative than Kerry during the primary. That may help him" in that region, said McAdams.

But the big unknown -- in Wisconsin and all the Midwest swing states -- is how these voters will interpret events in Iraq. Do they see the war and its aftermath as evidence of Bush's resolve against terrorism and foreign threats or as a tragic and costly boondoggle? The answer will likely determine how effective Edwards can be in winning votes to Kerry's side.

"I think it's going to be the economy," said state Representative Pedro Colon of Wisconsin, a Democrat representing Milwaukee's south side. "I can tell you many of my constituents aren't doing well. They like Edwards because they like his economic message."

But for many here in Wisconsin, the political calculus is hardly so clear-cut.

"I'm a Vietnam vet and I just don't feel it's fair that people were sent off to war on a whim," said Al Labelle, 61, of Marshfield, Wis.

Standing next to him, wearing a black US Air Force cap, Osbee Sampson, 61, disagreed: "We're really hurting in Wisconsin. Jobs will definitely be a big issue."

Labelle shook his head in disagreement.

"It is difficult putting the two issues on a scale and weighing them," conceded Sampson.

Raja Mishra can be reached at rmishra@globe.com.