The colors of money

Surely, given all the partisan hype surrounding this year's presidential election, you know about the blue states and red states -- blue ones vote Democratic, red ones go for Republicans. But have you ever considered which way your town leans?

Because Massachusetts is one of the most solid Democratic strongholds, there is little doubt that Senator John Kerry will carry the state on Nov. 2. But if campaign contributions are a good marker of political inclinations, the blue-red dichotomy does exist at the local level. And the donors' money, some say, will shape the presidential race more than their votes.

An analysis of federal campaign finance data shows that in Boston's western suburbs, allegiances are strong to both President Bush and Kerry. The 37 cities and towns in the Globe West coverage area are divided along partisan lines -- 16 have given more money to Bush, while 21 have given more to Kerry.

The figures show only contributions of $200 or more, and they include some donors who listed a work address when they gave. But overall, the data give a sense of the politics of each community.

As a region, the western suburbs have given far more to Kerry. The senator has collected $3.3 million from the 37 communities this election cycle, compared to Bush's $1.3 million -- $4.42 per capita for Kerry and $1.76 per capita for Bush. In general, the suburbs closer to Boston have given to Kerry. West of Framingham, the donations are solidly in Bush's favor.

The donors are people like Gail Rothenberg, a 55-year-old Newton photographer who said this is the first time she has ever made a political donation. Rothenberg forked over $50,000 to the Democratic National Committee and $2,000 to Kerry's presidential campaign -- the maximum amount an individual can give. Her husband, John F. Levy, also gave $50,000 to the Democrats and $2,000 to Kerry.

"I'm the most apolitical person on the planet, but I think things are really going the wrong way," Rothenberg said, criticizing the Bush administration's policies on Iraq, gay marriage, and the Patriot Act. "It's one bad implementation of policy after another."

But the donors are also people like 45-year-old Hopkinton resident Barry F. Stafford, who has been tucking $5 away each week and donating it to the Bush campaign. It's the first time he has donated to a national campaign, but the Boston firefighter has been doing this for nearly a year and has given $225.

"I got fed up and grumpy and decided to do a little more than put a bumper sticker on my car," Stafford said, donating in large part because he disagrees with Kerry's gun-ownership position and because he approves of the president's handling of the war against terrorism.

Among area communities, Newton gave the most to Bush ($174,000) and the most to Kerry ($1.2 million). Wellesley gave the second most to Bush and Kerry. Per capita, however, Weston gave the most to Kerry ($32.09 per resident) and Dover gave the most to Bush ($14.88 per resident).

Upton was the most lopsided toward Bush, giving $12,530 to the president and a mere $750 to Kerry. "Are you kidding me? In Upton?" said James R. Bates, one of the town's administrative assistants, when told of the figures. "That is absolutely surprising."

"One would expect Massachusetts will go to Kerry, so they're voting with their pocketbooks," Alan Solomont, a key Democratic fund-raiser from Weston, said of campaign contributors to both candidates.

Bush has collected a lot of money from an area where only 16 percent of voters are registered Republicans.

"Massachusetts is almost never in play electorally for the Republican presidential candidate," said Rob Gray, a Republican political consultant. "So, short of going into New Hampshire and holding a sign or knocking on doors, the best way for a Massachusetts Republican to help President Bush is to write a check so that those funds can be used in Iowa or Pennsylvania or some other state that's going to matter in November."

Gray said the Republicans expect to raise more money in Massachusetts for this election than they ever have.

Part of the reason that Bush is getting more donations this year, several political observers said, is that the GOP has some high-profile Republicans on their side, particularly Governor Mitt Romney, and they have been unusually aggressive in asking for money.

"It's a mix of access, influence, and aggressiveness that we haven't seen in the Republican Party in Massachusetts in 20 years," said Steve Grossman, the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee who chaired the Howard Dean campaign during the primaries.

That shift -- particularly in the fast-growing "exurbs" along the Interstate 495 corridor -- could also be part of a nationwide trend that might prove worrisome for Democrats, according to Julian E. Zelizer, a professor of history at Boston University.

"It's something that we're just now seeing, but it seems like Bush is starting to tap into suburbs in very Democratic states," said Zelizer, comparing it to Richard Nixon making inroads into the Democratic-leaning South in 1960 before winning in 1968. "He's going to Democratic suburbs in the Northeast, which is where the population growth is happening. And it's an area with a lot of money and a lot of influence. That's a threat for Democrats."

The same phenomenon, Zelizer said, is happening in other historically Democratic states, including New York, New Jersey, and California.

To be sure, campaign contributions are only one measure, and sometimes an imperfect one, of a community's political leanings. Indeed, although 16 of the communities covered by Globe West donated more to Bush, only two -- Dover and Norfolk -- gave more votes to Bush in the 2000 election. Two years later, there were only three area suburbs that did not vote for Romney -- Lincoln, Newton, and Watertown.

Under campaign finance laws approved in 2002, individuals can contribute up to $2,000 to a candidate's campaign and up to $25,000 each year to a national party committee. Two factors that affect each candidate's totals: Republicans are more likely to make larger contributions, and some Democrats may have given less to Kerry because they had already given to one of his former primary rivals.

Bush and Kerry were able to use the money donated to their campaigns until they were officially nominated, after which the balance was transferred to the national parties.

In this area, both parties have had two big donors.

The Democrats have Solomont, who heads Kerry's fund-raising operations in New England, and Steven B. Belkin, who hosted the most lucrative house party in the country this year for the Democrats at his home in Weston.

"This is just such a critical election for which direction the country is going to go," said Belkin, expressing worry about America's reputation abroad, the deficit, and the possibility that the next president will appoint Supreme Court justices.

The Republicans have Richard J. Egan and Christopher Jenny, both of whom have had Vice President Dick Cheney at their homes this year for fund-raising events.

Egan, the billionaire cofounder of EMC Corp. and chairman of the Bush-Cheney finance committee in the state, has built a reputation as a key donor and fund-raiser for the Bush campaign.

Egan and his two sons each have raised more than $200,000 for the Bush campaign, earning them the nickname, "Rangers."

Jenny has also hosted several major fund-raisers, including a party last summer where he welcomed Cheney to his Wayland home, raising $1.4 million for the reelection campaign.

Jenny declined to be interviewed; Egan did not return several phone messages.

Still, the bulk of donations from the region going to the two candidates this election season has gone to Kerry, the native son whom Grossman said this area has been good to.

"Massachusetts, and the western suburbs in particular, has been a critical ingredient to John Kerry's fund-raising success," he said, "particularly when the chips were down and people had lost faith [in Kerry] and weren't returning phone calls."

Matt Viser can be reached at viser@globe.com.