Maine event: Vote split could tip Electoral College

LEWISTON, Maine -- This state won't be the main event in the frantic, final days of the presidential campaign, but Maine could provide the most interesting sideshow of any of the electoral battlegrounds.

Neither campaign can afford to write off the state because of the distinct possibility that Maine could split its four electoral votes for the first time in history if the contest stays tight to the end. Under some complex yet plausible scenarios, a single electoral vote could tip the electoral college and determine the winner on Nov. 2. Maine and Nebraska are the only states that apportion electoral votes by congressional district.

For the Republicans, the conservative Franco-American population in places like this battered mill town could be what delivers that one electoral vote into their hands. For Democrats, issues such as the ailing economy and the unpopularity of the war in Iraq might give them an edge.

As a result, Maine remains on the itineraries of the candidates and a parade of surrogates. In the past month, President Bush, his wife, Laura, and their twin daughters, Barbara and Jenna, have made separate trips to Maine, as have Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards and his wife, Elizabeth. Alexandra Kerry, daughter of challenger John F. Kerry, was scheduled to make appearances today in Waterville and Portland.

The president visited Bangor, and his family and the Edwardses all stopped in Lewiston, the two most populous cities in the state's Second Congressional District, where polls suggest Bush could win an electoral vote even if he loses the state to Kerry. Conversely, the same polls indicate Kerry has built a significant lead in the more compact First Congressional District, which includes Portland and the affluent southern coastal towns.

"Lewiston-Auburn is really critical to John Kerry and John Edwards, not only winning Maine but also . . . the nation," Democratic Governor John Baldacci said in introducing Elizabeth Edwards to about 200 Wednesday at the Lewiston-Auburn College of the University of Southern Maine.

Former governor Angus S. King Jr., an independent who voted for Bush four years ago but is campaigning for Kerry, agreed. "Whoever wins the Lewiston area could carry the state," he said in an interview. King has been harshly critical of Bush over the Iraq war and record budget deficits, which he said pose a serious threat to the country's financial future.

Both sides have invested resources in the state, with large operations in Lewiston-Auburn, a pair of old textile mill cities separated by the Androscoggin River. These are heavily Democratic locations that Democrat Al Gore carried by a combined 5,800 votes four years ago, or slightly more than his entire victory margin in the congressional district. Gore carried the state by 5 percentage points in 2000 but the second district by less than two points.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader has qualified for the Maine ballot and is a factor in the state. In 2000, he polled 5.7 percent, more than double his national showing, though he is currently polling well below what he did four years ago in Maine.

Uncertain at this point is what effect, if any, two referenda on the Maine ballot will have on turnout and the presidential race: a proposal to cap local property taxes (Maine has the second-highest tax burden in the country) and a move to ban bear-baiting by hunters who use honey, doughnuts, or other foods to lure the state's black bear population into the open for the kill. Two separate polls have indicated heavy opposition to the bear-baiting question in the Second Congressional District -- home to many hunters, outfitters, and professional guides. Although there are no specific data yet, many Maine political observers interviewed by the Globe said they believe a large turnout to defeat the hunting referendum could help Bush.

The Bush campaign is working the area hard, trying to cut into the Democrats' traditional advantage among the state's large conservative French-Catholic community. Once reliably Democratic, many of Maine's Franco-Americans are now part of the state's dominant voting bloc -- independent-minded ticket-splitters.

"The reason Maine is now in play is that Bush is close to having about 30 percent of the Franco vote," said Christian P. Potholm, a Bowdoin College professor, Maine pollster, and student for 25 years of Franco-American voting patterns in the Pine Tree State. "If you reach that, you almost always win."

Bush's appeal to this constituency, Potholm said, is based on the group's tendency to resist big government programs and the taxes needed to pay for them.

Jesse Derris, the Kerry-Edwards spokesman in Maine, downplayed that, saying Kerry's emphasis on "kitchen-table issues" is more important to these blue-collar and middle-class voters. "We're talking about creating jobs, closing loopholes that allow jobs to be shipped overseas, and making healthcare and prescription drugs more affordable," Derris said. "These are the pocketbook issues people vote on."

Mainers of French-Canadian heritage accounted for 23 percent of the state's population in the 2000 Census. The center of Franco-American culture in the state is Lewiston-Auburn, where an estimated 48 percent and 37 percent of residents, respectively, are of French or French-Canadian background, according to the census.

Although this section of the state has struggled economically for decades after the textile jobs headed south, the unemployment rate for the Lewiston-Auburn metropolitan area was only 3.5 percent in August, a point below the state's rate and nearly 2 percentage points under the national average.

Nevertheless, in interviews, several local residents expressed pessimism about the local economy -- and anger at the president's handling of the war in Iraq.

Brenda Bisson of Auburn, a patient services representative at a local hospital, said she voted for Bush four years ago but called it "a mistake." Angered by the war, the independent voter said she will support Kerry this time.

Bob LaBonte of Lewiston, a refrigeration technician for a supermarket chain, said he supported Bush in 2000 but is undecided this year. Upset by the war, LaBonte, a registered Democrat, said he is not ready to abandon the president, however, because Kerry "flip-flops all the time."

Bisson and LaBonte said their children left Maine to find good-paying jobs. "All the kids with brains are leaving the state," LaBonte said.

Republicans say Bush is making inroads in Maine.

"We get a lot of people walking in here who were born Democrats, will die Democrats, but will not vote Democratic this time," said Andrew Simon, who is coordinating the Republican field effort in Androscoggin and Franklin counties out of downtown Lewiston.

Along a six-block stretch marked by more than 20 empty storefronts on dingy Lisbon Street, the only consistent signs of life after dark are the Republican and Democratic headquarters, about two blocks apart, where volunteers and paid staff make phone calls to area voters.

It's part of the massive get-out-the-vote operation by both sides, a rarity for the GOP in this and other battleground states, where Democrats and their labor union allies have always had more effective Election Day operations.

On a night this week, the Republican office was staffed by nine college students -- eight from nearby Bates College and one from Central Maine Community College. The Maine College Republicans are among the party's shock troops this year, recruiting about 2,000 members and expanding from five to 23 campuses in Maine, according to Dan Schuberth, chairman of the statewide group and political director of the Maine Republican Party while on leave from Bowdoin College for the semester.

"It blows the Democrats' minds to see that the college students making the calls and knocking on doors are Republicans," Schuberth said.

But Derris of the Kerry campaign said the Democratic ground effort, augmented by environmental, labor, and other activist groups, "is unprecedented" in the state. Democrats contend that the Bush strategy is focused almost entirely on the northern part of the state, in hopes of snagging one electoral vote.

"Simply not true," retorts Peter E. Cianchette, the Bush-Cheney chairman in Maine. "We've been applying our resources about equally between the two districts, and our overall objective is to win the state and pick up all four electoral votes." He added, however, that the campaign could shift resources down the stretch. Cianchette, a former Republican state representative from South Portland, noted that he won the first district in his 2002 loss to Baldacci in the governor's race.

Maine's politics are notoriously fickle. The fact that Bush's parents own a home in Kennebunkport, marking them in Maine as "from away," has not been a political asset. In his 1992 reelection defeat, then-president George H.W. Bush finished third in Maine, behind Bill Clinton and independent candidate Ross Perot. Perot's 30 percent showing in Maine was his best in the country that year.

Moreover, two of the state's last five governors were independents, and the congressional delegation now consists of two Republicans, both women, in the Senate, and two Democrats, both men, in the House. Democrats (31.1 percent) hold a slight registration advantage over Republicans (28.7 percent), according to the most recent figures compiled by the secretary of state's office. But independents (38.2 percent), a plurality, hold the balance of power in the state.

Party affiliation, however, offers no guarantees, adding to the Maine electorate's fiercely independent reputation.

"People in Maine split ballots every which way," said King.

Previous articles in thisseries can be found atwww.boston.com/politics.