An unexpected battle in mountains for Bush

MORRISON, Colo. -- On its craggy face, Colorado looks and sounds like Bush country. Local radio is dominated by Christian religious programs and conservative talk radio. The Christian group Focus on the Family is headquartered in Colorado Springs. Republicans hold most major political offices in the state, where a taxpayer Bill of Rights mandates tax refunds of surplus revenues.

Excited supporters of President Bush turned out in the thousands last week to cheer their candidate at Red Rocks Amphitheatre, whooping with the same enthusiasm as the music fans who attend rock concerts at the geologically stunning mountain arena. "I believe he is a man of conviction and faith," said Mary Ann Creque, 43, after watching Bush, surrounded by flag-waving supporters and local celebrity Mike Shanahan, coach of the Denver Broncos, deliver a scathing speech against Democratic foe John F. Kerry of Massachusetts. "I don't think [Kerry] understands the average American," Creque said.

There was only one problem for the GOP: Bush wasn't supposed to be here. Colorado, with its Republican governor, House and Senate, and two US senators, wasn't expected to entertain the idea of voting for the man Bush describes as the most liberal member of the Senate. But in the last weeks of the campaign, the Rocky Mountain State has emerged as a key battleground in the excruciatingly close presidential race.

A recent Gallup poll suggests the two men are running dead even in the state, which offers nine electoral votes (the votes may be divided if Colorado approves a referendum next month to award its electoral votes proportionally). And while Colorado has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate only once in the past half-century -- the last time in 1992, when the third-party candidacy of Ross Perot helped give Bill Clinton the state -- Democrats this year see Colorado as a potential new prize.

"John Kerry didn't think it was a battleground state. All of a sudden, the lights went on," said Federico Peña, former mayor of Denver and Transportation secretary during the Clinton administration. But now, Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have been forced to come back to Colorado to shore up their base, Peña said. "That is what is driving the Bush campaign crazy. That never was supposed to happen."

Ted Halaby, Colorado's Republican Party state chairman, said he is confident Bush will capture Colorado, but acknowledged the battle is closer than officials in both parties thought it would be. "There's certainly no reason to be overconfident at this stage. But if we get out our voters, the president is going to win this state," Halaby said.

Republicans attribute Colorado's newfound status as a battleground to an aggressive Democratic media buy after Senator Ben Nighthorse-Campbell, a Republican, announced earlier this year that he would not seek reelection. Democrats were excited at the possibility of sending their party's only statewide elected official, Attorney General Ken Salazar, to the US Senate, and the heavy, often negative advertisements the two sides ran helped bring the state into play, Halaby said.

Democrats say voter anger over the war in Iraq and the economy have fueled support for Kerry. "He's done a lot of damage in the past four years, and a lot of people want Bush out," said Bill Vieregg, a 56-year-old retiree from Stapleton who plans to vote for Kerry.

But pollsters and political analysts say the shift in Colorado's political persuasion has much to do with demographics. Colorado is the fifth fastest-growing state in the nation, noted Colorado pollster Floyd Ciruli, and has attracted many new voters who have altered the state's political profile.

In the early 1990s, Colorado's new residents tended to come from conservative Southern California. "We cleaned out Orange County, and they became the fuel for the Republican resurgence," Ciruli said. But the new voters since then are more diverse, and include a fast-growing population of Latinos, who tend to favor Democrats, said Norman Provizer, a political science professor at Metro State College of Denver.

The population shift has put several states in the Rocky Mountain region and Southwest in play. Bush won Nevada, for example, by some 22,000 votes in 2000. But the state is growing at a breathtaking pace, adding residents in numbers many times Bush's margin of victory four years ago. Henry Cisneros, Housing and Urban Development secretary during the Clinton administration, estimated this summer that Nevada had 240,000 new voters since 2000 and that 60 percent of them were Hispanic, a trend Democrats believe favors Kerry.

Bush is also vulnerable because of his decision to allow nuclear waste storage at Nevada's Yucca Mountain site, acknowledged Senator John Ensign, Republican of Nevada. But he predicted that the president, who has enjoyed a slight lead in Nevada, will win the state.

New Mexico, a state Vice President Al Gore won by 366 votes in 2000, appears headed for another nail-biter of an election this year. Polls suggest the two candidates are in a statistical tie, and party officials say the contest will come down to which side gets out its base to vote.

Billy Sparks, spokesman for New Mexico's Democratic governor, Bill Richardson, said Richardson was encouraged by the registration of nearly 50,000 new Hispanic voters in the state. "It's definitely a dead heat, very close. So, the attention has turned to which side has the better ground game," said Sparks, adding that the campaign is "literally door-to-door" in the final stretch.

In Colorado, Republicans have enjoyed a registration boom, with a 180,000-voter advantage over Democrats. But the state's large bloc of Independents -- representing about a third of 2.7 million voters in the state, Provizer said -- puts any statewide race in flux. Further, an aggressive voter registration effort has brought many new voters into the mix; a Denver Post survey concluded the state has 300,000 new voters -- more than a third of the 883,748 votes Bush got in 2000.

Ralph Nader's presence on the ballot could also affect the outcome. In 2000, the then-Green Party candidate garnered 91,434 votes, about 5 percent of the total. But Gore barely competed then for the state, a mistake Democrats said they won't make this year. Kerry has been to the state five times since June 21; his running mate, Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, courted voters at a town meeting in Commerce City last week. Bush held a rally in Colorado in September and came back for a two-day visit last week.

But while Kerry supporters are thrilled at the possibility the Democrat could score a coup in Colorado, they seem less excited about the candidate himself. Globe interviews with a variety of voters show a state divided between fervent Bush supporters and Kerry voters who are largely motivated by a desire to oust the Republican president.

"I'll vote for John Kerry and Ken Salazar and anybody who's not a Republican," said Eric Martinez, a 41-year-old computer repairman in Pueblo. "I think we were lied to by this guy [when] he took us to war. As a veteran, to see young boys out there dying for oil -- that's wrong."

Danny Elster, 30, and a musician in Adams County near Denver, said he is unhappy with Bush's record on healthcare and hopes Kerry will offer something better.

Christi Romero Roseth, a 37-year-old social worker in Denver, faulted Bush on education, which she said is critical to keeping families off welfare.

Kerry-Edwards signs abound in Denver, and anti-Bush displays -- such as a woman's pink slip attached to a sign saying "Pink-Slip Bush" -- are common in the city. But in rural areas and in conservative strongholds like Colorado Springs, Bush supporters are passionately devoted to their candidate, citing the president's strong faith and his approach to terrorism.

"I feel safer" with Bush, said Goldie Fishbein, 49, of Centennial. "I don't want to change midstream."

Matt Koen, 26, of Pueblo said he appreciated Bush's religiosity. "Who's going to live up to what God's purposes are and with what we believe?" he said.

Steve Haro, Kerry's Colorado spokesman, said the fact that Bush has to ask for votes in the Rocky Mountain State is a success for Democrats.

"In many ways, the Colorado campaign has already won, because we have forced Republicans to compete in a state they never anticipated," he said.

Previous articles in thisseries can be found at www.boston.com/politics.