Win shows 'red states' on the rise

George W. Bush's victory marks the political ascendancy of ''red-state" America that backed him strongly four years ago but then served as veritable bulwark against some of the strongest political winds to confront an incumbent seeking reelection.

Bush won almost exactly the same combination of states as in his disputed 2000 victory, but most of them gained population and electoral clout in the intervening years, and, on Tuesday, rewarded his program of tax cuts and military aggressiveness with higher margins than four years ago.

Through all the darkest moments of his presidency -- the guerrilla insurgency in Iraq, the torture scandal at Abu Ghraib prison, the release of pre-Sept. 11, 2001, memos warning of a terror attack on the United States -- Bush's supporters in Southern and Western states remained loyal, restricting the competitive landscape for the 2004 election to a handful of swing states.

In a pattern reminiscent of four years ago, Democrats were cheered by strong exit-poll results, only to watch Bush do better than expected almost everywhere. The president held on to the key states of Florida, West Virginia, and, finally, Ohio.

And, just like four years ago, he lost the Northeast and the West Coast -- including such large states as California, New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey -- by almost exactly the same margins as in 2000.

The president's victory can only be seen as an endorsement of the president's aggressive policies in Iraq and elsewhere. Bush was greatly helped by the fact that the United States has not had another major attack since 2001, a circumstance so welcome that both candidates barely mentioned it, as if trying to avoid a jinx.

But voters noticed it: Many who were interviewed outside polling places in Florida said they believed that, despite Bush's failure to anticipate the Iraq insurgency, his decision to go to war in Iraq helped dissuade potential terrorists from attacking the United States.

Still, Bush's victory is, at bottom, a mandate from a little more than half the country, almost exactly the same half that supported him four years ago. Drawing another narrow win out of the same well can further the red-state/blue-state cultural divide that is, in some respects, a product of Bush's policies.

The newly reelected president will come under some pressure to unify the country and build more support from Democrats, perhaps by ridding his Cabinet of some of its more divisive figures, such as Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and Attorney General John Ashcroft.

Democrats, demoralized after again failing to take either chamber of Congress and bruised after a contentious four years, would probably welcome an olive branch. Even some Bush supporters would probably endorse more moderate leaders at the Pentagon and the Justice Department.

But the way Bush won reelection does not signal a move to the center: His chief political adviser, Karl Rove, advised him to shore up the base at the expense of swing voters -- a decision that led to Bush's endorsement of a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, his commitment of federal funds to faith-based charities, and his unapologetic embrace of the doctrine of preemptive war in Iraq.

The usual blueprint for a presidential run calls for appealing to centrists to build a coalition. But Bush's decision to concentrate on energizing his core supporters may change that blueprint forever.

After all, an energized political ''base" does not waver if the candidate loses a few debates. It comes out to vote even in the kind of driving rain that soaked Ohio on Election Day. It supports its favored candidates even when times are good, like 2000, and there is no obvious need for a change in leadership. And it sticks with its favorites even when times are hard, and many voters seem to be looking for a change.

A leader who touted consistency as his prime character trait, Bush will probably govern in a second term the way he has in his first: By accepting the counsel of a small group of advisers led by Vice President Dick Cheney and by resisting opinions from any other quarter, including Republicans in Congress.

In recent months, some senior Republican senators have spoken out against various aspects of Bush's Iraq policy, perhaps signaling a desire for more consultation in a second term. It is not likely they will get it, and it is not clear they will demand it.

Bush's margins have been small, but he has kept the Republicans in power, earning his party's gratitude. And he, Rove, and Cheney believe that having congressional Republicans read from a White House-crafted script is the key to transforming Washington. It is the way the party has leveraged narrow victories in 2000 and the 2002 congressional elections into far-reaching policy changes in taxation and foreign policy.

Election Day was another show of loyalty of ''red-state America" to the president it admires. Texas, Georgia, Louisiana, Tennessee, and the rest of the South gave Bush big margins; Florida and Ohio stayed in the Republican column by narrower margins.

For Bush, who prides himself on standing by his friends and rewarding supporters, the victory will be received as a sweet vindication after a year of stress and turmoil; as proof of his legitimacy after his tarnished 2000 win; and even, perhaps, as avenging his father's defeat in 1992.

And he will not forget who gave it to him.