To boost party support, strategists tell Democrats to look West
WASHINGTON -- Democratic strategists, searching for ways to broaden support, are urging the party to put new emphasis on the West, where they say state and local election results and demographic changes reflect political opportunity in a region long dominated by Republicans.
Party leaders acknowledge that the noncoastal Western states, which voted last month largely for George W. Bush for president, are hardly a Democratic bastion. But population trends are making such states as Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico more fertile territory for a future Democratic presidential contender, and such rock-hard Republican states as Montana and Wyoming are displaying Democratic tendencies, they said.
They note that Bush's aggressive Iraq policies are arousing concern in the traditionally isolationist West, even among longtime Republicans, and that several local environmental initiatives were approved in states where the administration wants to permit drilling for oil and gas and the storage of nuclear waste. An influx of Hispanics has also changed the political composition of several states in the region, making them more hospitable for Democrats.
Southern conservatives in both parties are attracted by social issues such as gay marriage, abortion, and religious values, a mix that made the region tough territory for Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry, analysts and party leaders said. But the West's strong independent streak and Hispanic population will give Democrats a fighting chance there in 2006 and 2008, said Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democrat Network.
''What I believe is going on right now is that Bush's brand of conservatism, which is playing very well among social conservatives, is not playing well among libertarians," said Rosenberg, who is mulling a run for chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee. ''The West has a very different brand of conservatives and liberals than the South."
Environmental issues may also play a role in wooing independent voters in the West, where growth has many voters concerned about air quality, clean water, and available outdoor space for recreation and hunting, advocates said. More than three-fourths of the 147 environmental-related ballot questions up for a vote this year were approved, according to a tally by the League of Conservation Voters. They include mass transit and alternative energy in Colorado and Montana.
''In Western states, we are detecting a shift in peoples' attitudes" on energy and environmental matters, such as mining, said Phil Clapp, president of the National Environmental Trust.
Rosenberg and other Democrats insist that they are not giving up on the South, despite election results and polls showing an increasingly conservative trend there. Republicans picked up US Senate seats this year in Georgia, Louisiana, Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina, wins that helped the GOP achieve a 10-member majority in the incoming Senate.
But Rosenberg and other Democratic leaders said the party must make more aggressive inroads in the West, particularly among Hispanics, to win the presidency.
Democrats are showing nascent gains there. In Colorado last month, voters flipped both houses of the Legislature from Republican to Democrat and elected a Democratic senator and additional US House member. Montanans elected a Democrat for governor, turned the state Senate Democratic, and may end up with a 50-50 state House. A legal challenge will determine whether that chamber will be split or narrowly controlled by Republicans after 12 years of GOP dominance.
Bush barely won Nevada, with 50 percent of the vote, and winning in landslides were Democrats Harry Reid, the incoming Senate minority leader, and Shelley Berkley, the incumbent US representative. Both New Mexico and Arizona have Democratic governors, and Democrats are even hopeful that Wyoming, which elected a Democratic governor in 2002, might be turning a bit less Republican.
''There's not a lot out here [in terms of electoral votes], but if they could pick it up and keep the race close, Colorado has more potential," said Floyd Cirusli, an independent pollster in Denver. States such as Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, and Montana ''I think have characteristics of an area that could go Democratic under the right conditions."
Much of the initial trend is caused by immigration and internal migration, particularly the increase in Hispanics into New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada, analysts said. While Bush picked up substantial Hispanic support in the recent election -- pollsters disagree on Bush's gain -- Latinos still vote more Democratic than Republican. That means an overall increase in Hispanics in a state would be disproportionately beneficial to Democrats, Rosenberg said.
Further, a poll by the National Annenberg Election Survey released last week showed that while Bush's support among Hispanics rose from 35 percent in 2000 to 41 percent this year, the president lost some ground among Western Latinos, from 33 percent in 2000 to 30 percent this year. The West was the only region, the poll showed, where Bush suffered any erosion in support from Hispanics.
But while Westerners have shown an increasing willingness to vote for Democrats, they are skeptical of members of the more liberal wing of the party, said Whit Ayres, a Republican consultant. ''Any big-government liberal is going to go over like a lead balloon in the libertarian West. Rugged individualism is still a very important part of the outlook of the Mountain West," Ayres said.
Environmental issues, activists and Democratic officials said, could be critical in forging winning Democratic campaigns, but only if those matters are framed as quality-of-life questions. While many Westerners may oppose significant government regulation, they also are wary of losing the open space and pristine environment that drew many of them to the region, said Billy Sparks, deputy chief of staff for communications for Bill Richardson, Democratic governor of New Mexico. He said a poll this summer showed that fewer than a fourth of New Mexicans, and fewer than half of the state's Republicans, support oil and gas drilling in the Otero Mesa Area.
Senator-elect Ken Salazar and Representative-elect John Salazar, Democrats from Colorado who are brothers, built public support for their campaigns by defending water rights in the Rocky Mountain state. Environmentalists say other Democrats can win in the West if they emphasize similar issues.
