Polls suggest Arab-Americans gravitating toward KerryArab-American voters, disenchanted with President Bush's policies on the Middle East and what they consider an assault on their civil liberties around the country, are abandoning the Republican president and throwing their support behind his Democratic opponent, John F. Kerry, according to polls and community leaders.
The nation's 3.5 million Arab-Americans constitute a voting bloc that perhaps more than any other has shifted its party loyalties since the 2000 election, when nearly half voted for Bush. Polls conducted this summer indicated Kerry leading Bush by more than a 2-to-1 ratio. Their votes could prove crucial this year, analysts say, especially in such battleground states as Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, each with more than 100,000 voters of Arab descent. But their support for Kerry appears soft, some say, in part because both he and Bush have taken strong pro-Israel positions. As a result, the ultimate allegiance of Arab-Americans remains volatile, with a significant number considering a vote for independent Ralph Nader, a Lebanese-American who has called for the United States to pull out of Iraq and the repeal of the USA Patriot Act. Kerry has tried to limit Bush's inroads with Jewish voters by backing Israel over the Palestinian Authority, and this week said he would have still voted for the war in Iraq even if he knew at the time that Saddam Hussein had no weapons of mass destruction or ties to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. And while Kerry supports amending the Patriot Act, the counterterrorism law that many Arab-Americans say has been used to infringe on their rights, he was among the majority of lawmakers who voted for it in October 2001. "It's a dilemma," said Taleb Salhab, coordinator of the Florida Arab American Leadership Council. "We have worked diligently with the Kerry campaign to get them to address some of these concerns, but the Nader factor remains an issue in our community." Peter Camejo, Nader's running mate, said in an interview: "The Muslim-Arab community is very anti-Bush and is going to Kerry, but it's also one area where Nader is getting a lot of support." There are an estimated 270,000 Arab-Americans in Florida, 400,000 in Michigan, 160,000 in Ohio, and 150,000 in Pennsylvania. About 70 percent of Arab-Americans are Christians. A high voter turnout is expected this fall. "People are really, really fired up about this election," said Salhab, a Kerry supporter. "I think Florida will play a critical role as it did the last time. I am confident our community will turn out to vote in record numbers." So far, Kerry is clearly benefiting from the growing anti-Bush feelings over the Iraq war, a widening chasm between the West and the Islamic world, and what Arab-American leaders see as ethnic profiling and the White House's disregard for their concerns. In community centers, mosques, and churches, the disdain for Bush is evident. "It seems that the only time this administration wants to meet with us is for photo opportunities, not to hear our concerns about policies here at home and abroad," Mahdi Bray, executive director of the Muslim American Society's Freedom Foundation, wrote recently on the group's website. Bush's approval rating among Arab-Americans is 24 percent, according to Zogby International, an independent polling firm. Even though one-third were registered Republican in 2000, 47 percent voted for Bush. According to several recent polls in states with large numbers of Arab-Americans, they are leaning much more toward Kerry. A recent Zogby poll showed that 54 percent support Kerry, while 24 percent favor Bush. Of the rest, 21 percent said they were undecided or backing Nader. The July poll in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania indicated that 30 percent who described themselves as Republicans agreed that "it is time for someone new." "It's a complete 180-degree turn," pollster John Zogby said of the apparent reversal from four years ago. Still, some Arab-American leaders say the Democratic Party could be squandering a chance for more support from Americans of Arab descent. They say stronger stances against certain aspects of the Patriot Act, such as "sneak and peek" searches of residences without notice, would sway more members of the community. Another area of significant contention is Kerry's stance on the Middle East peace process. Kerry, in a recent policy paper, struck a harder position in support for Israel's construction of a security barrier. "Our community has more confidence in Kerry [on the Middle East peace process], but half of them are not confident with either" Kerry or Bush, according to James Zogby, president of the Arab-American Institute, who is a Kerry supporter and the pollster's brother. At an event held during the Democratic National Convention last month in Boston, James Zogby warned that Kerry's appeals to Jewish voters could cost him more Arab-American votes in large swing states than he might gain. He said that while Bush may gain more Jewish votes this year than in 2000 due to his pro-Israel policies and muscular stance against Muslim terrorists, at most he will get 30 percent of their votes. Kerry -- like Democratic presidential candidates in the past -- will still get the overwhelming majority. So Kerry may win some additional Jewish votes by being staunchly pro-Israel, but those gains could be undercut by turning off Arab-Americans in Michigan, Florida, or other states, Zogby warned. A sense that Arab-Americans are backing Kerry because they oppose Bush -- not because they are enamored with the Democrat -- gives Nader some hope. "If they shift from Bush to Kerry, all they are getting is a new suit of clothes," Nader said in a recent interview. "They have the same policies on Iraq, Israel-Palestine, and the Patriot Act, which are near and dear to them. The only other thing they are getting different is a new attorney general. But there is no guarantee [of policy changes]. Profiling Arab-Americans and Muslim Americans and using secret evidence in immigration cases -- they did a lot of those things before 9/11."
Bryan Bender can be reached at bender@globe.com. © Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.
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