President's campaign uses optimism to attract

ST. CLOUD, Minn. -- At a small baseball field in a town where the unemployment roll has added 1,200 names during his time in office, President Bush stood in the bright sunshine Thursday morning and trumpeted the optimistic vision that has become his campaign trademark.

‘‘Our economy is strong, and it’s getting stronger,’’ Bush said during a rally. ‘‘We’re not turning back.’’

And on a day that the CIA’s dire warning about the future security situation in Iraq was made public, Bush went on to assert that the democracy is blooming in the post-Saddam Hussein era.

‘‘Freedom is on the march,’’ he said. ‘‘We have led, many have joined, and America and the world are safer.’’

The audience of supporters roared their approval.

In a period of national uneasiness, Bush’s message is simple, blunt, and appealing: Things are getting better. Bush is calculating that voters who have tuned in slightly to the political race will be reassured by his clear-eyed assertions and convinced that a resolute leader deserves another term, said Ron Faber, a journalism professor at the University of Minnesota who studies political communication.

‘‘Voters don’t know about all the issues, but they seem to gravitate toward certainty,’’ Faber said.

‘‘Americans like positive messages and they like consistent messages, and Bush gives them at least the hope that things will get better.’’

Incumbents, of course, have everyreason to say things are going well on their watch. But the same strategy that worked for Bill Clinton in 1996 failed for Bush’s father four years earlier, when voters saw his optimism as aloofness that left him blind to their economic duress.

The fate of the current President Bush, whose expressions of optimism are hardened with attacks on opponent John F. Kerry, could depend more on events outside his control than on the man on the stump.

‘‘Optimism won’t work if the evidence suggests otherwise, if people’s lives don’t feel the same way,’’ said Shawn J. Parry-Giles, director of the Center for Political Communication and Civic Leadership at the University of Maryland.

‘‘The images on the television about Iraq are accentuating the violence. If that continues, and if the negative] economic numbers continue, it’s going to be harder for him to stay on this message of optimism.’’

The wild swings in recent polls suggest the race is volatile. The nonpartisan Pew Research Center and Harris Interactive polls this week indicated that the race is essentially tied, while a new Gallup survey indicated that Bush holds a lead of 13 percentage points over Kerry. A New York Times/ CBS poll of registered voters published today indicated that Bush leads Kerry, 50 percent to 42 percent.

Bush’s positive talk is one reason that, while polls suggest that a majority of respondents think the country is headed in the wrong direction, the incumbent president is running strong, specialists say.

A national survey taken by Public Opinion Strategies earlier this week found that 43 percent of respondents felt the nation is headed in the right direction. It also showed Bush with a lead over Kerry, 48 percent to 42 percent.

Other polls confirm that voters’ dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs has not translated into wide anti-Bush sentiment.

Democrats have taken note of Bush’s recent campaign strategies.

They are trying to portray Bush’s optimism as obliviousness. In recent days, Kerry and running mate John Edwards have hit Bush hard on the loss of jobs under his administration; accused the president of lying about progress in Iraq; and accused Bush of ignoring rising violence in US cities.

Yesterday the Democratic Party began running a new television advertisement, showing Bush on an aircraft carrier under a ‘‘Mission Accomplished’’ banner, and a clip of the president saying, ‘‘The economy is strong.’’ The ad asks, ‘‘How can you solve problems when you won’t even admit they’re there?’’

Bush aides say the president’s optimism is warranted, given positive signs that Democrats are ignoring.

They say his demeanor presents a stark contrast with Kerry, particularly as Kerry’s attacks on the president grow more shrill.

‘‘John Kerry says the economy is terrible and I have no plan to

make it better,’’ Ken Mehlman, Bush’s campaign manager, said to reporters Wednesday.

Bush’s demeanor is upbeat, his language uplifting; the president used a variation on the word ‘‘hope’’ seven times in St. Cloud and said ‘‘safe’’ six times. He selectively recounts statistics for maximum effect, for example, referencing the speedy economic growth rate in the third quarter of last year without noting that it dropped by nearly two-thirds in the most recent quarter.

‘‘You tell folks out there that our economy is growing at rates as fast as any in nearly 20 years, that we’ve added 1.7 million new jobs since August of last year, that the national unemployment rate is 5.4 percent, below the average rate of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s,’’ he said on the economy.

‘‘Our strategy is succeeding. It’s succeeding,’’ Bush said, talking about foreign policy.

Murray Mack, an architect from St. Cloud who said he grew up in a Democratic household, said his support for Bush has more to do with Bush’s manner than his policies. The president projects confidence, he said, and that’s important at a time of difficult world events and a troublesome domestic economy. ‘‘He has a belief in this country,’’ said Mack, who attended the rally Thursday in St. Cloud with his wife, Sue. ‘‘I want a guy on TV that I respect, and that represents our country well.’’

Rick Klein can be reached at rklein@globe.com.