Clark, Lieberman decide to skip Iowa caucuses
Lagging candidates to shift resources to other contests
In a move that could dramatically alter the 2004 Democratic presidential primaries, Wesley K. Clark and Joseph I. Lieberman, two candidates with strong name recognition but facing unique challenges in Iowa -- where the first votes will be cast on Jan. 19 -- said they will skip that state's caucuses and focus their money and efforts on later races.
Lieberman, the Connecticut senator and Democratic vice presidential candidate in 2000, had been trailing in the polls in Iowa; Clark, the retired Army general who jumped into the race a month ago, could not afford to spend the time needed to wage the personal campaigning that Iowa voters demand.
"New Hampshire is a primary and Iowa is a caucus," said Matt Bennett, Clark's communications director. "And caucuses are all about organization on the ground. It's about getting people to the caucus."
After evaluating the situation in Iowa, he said, "it just didn't add up."
But he added: "New Hampshire is a different story. We think that New Hampshire is still fertile territory for a relatively new candidate."
Lieberman, meanwhile, has long insisted his best hopes for the White House lay not in winning primary votes in Iowa and New Hampshire, but in the cluster of states with primaries on Feb. 3.
Those states include South Carolina, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Arizona, where Lieberman believes his message of support of the war in Iraq and tax increases for the wealthy will resonate. Some of his campaign's planned spending in Iowa will now be used to hire press secretaries in Arizona and Oklahoma, as well as the opening of a new Oklahoma headquarters.
"Unlike years past, candidates aren't just looking at a two-state early primary season, but nine early primary states. As a result, candidates will need to focus their resources where they think they will prove most effective," said Lieberman spokesman Jano Cabrera. "Without a doubt we feel shifting resources to New Hampshire and Feb. 3 states is a winning strategy for Joe Lieberman."
Lieberman had been questioning the worth of his Iowa operation for weeks. He had fallen well behind former Vermont governor Howard Dean, Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, and Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts in state polls. A fourth-place finish seemed the best-case scenario, said Lieberman staff members.
Then last week came the third-quarter campaign fund-raising report: Lieberman raised only $3.6 million between July and September. And he had only $4.1 million on hand as of Sept. 30, the least among the major candidates other than Clark, who had only been in the race since September.
"Essentially, Dean emerged, Gephardt ended up getting the backing of Iowa labor unions, [North Carolina Senator John] Edwards made a significant investment. At the end of the day, we decided we were looking at a nine primary state map, and we had to match up our resources," said a senior Lieberman campaign official.
Lieberman's campaign has not given up on New Hampshire. Most of the dozen staff he had in Iowa will be redeployed there, and he plans to open four new field offices in Berlin, Salem, Laconia, and the Upper Valley.
Last night, Lieberman called Tom Vilsack, Iowa's governor, and state attorney general Tom Miller, who had endorsed him, to explain his decision. Then he held a conference call with his staff. Lieberman plans to keep a single office open in Des Moines, and his name will still be on the Iowa caucus ballot.
According to a senior Lieberman staff member, John Weaver, a former consultant to 2000 candidate John McCain, helped convince the senator to make the decision to skip Iowa. McCain, he told Lieberman during a recent consultation, skipped Iowa, spent his resources in New Hampshire, and ended up winning the Granite State, giving him considerable momentum. However, Lieberman is also lagging in New Hampshire polls, as well as in most of the Feb. 3 primary states.
As for Clark, intense media attention has helped to give him nearly instant name recognition, though it also put a spotlight on some early stumbles and staff shake-ups. Early fund-raising scores vaulted him to the top tier of Democrats for last quarter's receipts.
He's had some rocky moments, too: a muddled early message on his stance on the war in Iraq, the resignation of his first campaign manager, praise he voiced for the Republican leadership in the spring of 2001.
And some political analysts and Democratic activists are wondering whether Clark's reputation, built over months of will-he-run speculation and wartime television commentaries, will translate into gains on the ground in crucial states.
In Iowa, candidates need to make inroads with the rural political activists, in 99 counties, who are crucial to winning the Jan. 19 caucus, said Bruce Gronbeck, a professor of political communications at the University of Iowa. Both Clark and Lieberman thought the odds too long.
Gronbeck said Clark had clearly had some early struggles in Iowa: The local press complained that he wasn't very accessible, because he was giving all of his attention to the national press; local political players had noted that his field operation wasn't reaching out across the counties as needed; and in downtown Iowa City, an information table set up by the campaign still had signs saying "Draft Clark," with no indication that the candidate was actually running.
While Iowa doesn't have many electoral votes, Gronbeck said, there is a risk to bypassing the caucuses.
"You miss practice," he said. "You miss getting the phrases you need to answer questions quickly and pointedly. You don't know the range of questions. . . . That does hurt a candidate."
"It's a gamble," said Peverill Squire, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. Candidates who fare well there, he said, generate publicity and momentum leading into the following week, when New Hampshire votes on Jan. 27.
"What Clark is gambling is that his candidacy is somewhat unusual, and that the rules that apply to the rest of the field" don't affect him as much, said Squire, who agreed with that theory -- to a point.
"His credentials and his background still make him stand out a little bit," Squire said, "but the longer he stays in the race, the more he looks like everybody else."
Since Jimmy Carter burst onto the national scene with a strong showing in the 1976 Iowa caucuses, candidates have avoided Iowa at their peril. During the 1988 campaign, Al Gore withdrew, saying he would focus on southern states on Super Tuesday, but he fared poorly. And despite his early success, McCain lost the 2000 nomination to President Bush. In 1992, though, when native son Senator Tom Harkin ran, the other Democratic candidates -- including Bill Clinton -- chose to bypass Iowa.
In New Hampshire, recent independent polls show that Clark still faces a long fight.
A University of New Hampshire poll released last week showed that 10 percent of likely Democratic primary voters
supported Clark, compared with 17 percent for Kerry and 30 percent for Dean. An Oct. 9 poll by Manchester-based American Research Group showed that while 90 percent of Granite State voters know who Clark is, 46 percent have no opinion of him.
"He hasn't really been tested here yet," said Dick Bennett, American Research Group's president. "He hasn't exposed himself to great numbers of voters and been asked questions, some embarrassing."
Both polls show high numbers of undecided voters, who have yet to settle on a candidate. Mary Rauh, an undecided Democratic activist from New Castle, isn't surprised that people are withholding judgment.
"It's a very New Hampshire thing," said Rauh, who hosted a house party for Clark on his first trip to the state two weeks ago. "People are waiting to see him."
Clark was planning to spend several days in New Hampshire once his voice -- reduced to less than a whisper by a cold -- returns.
Shortly after Senator Bob Graham of Florida dropped out of the race, the Clark campaign took over some key members of Graham's staff, including his New Hampshire campaign director, Steve Bouchard. The Clark camp is now taking over Graham's Manchester office, buying Graham's equipment, and replacing "Graham" signs with "Clark" signs for a reopening.
New Hampshire analysts say that, despite Dean's formidable lead in the state, it's not too late for Clark to make a credible push.
Some voters, they say, still question whether Dean would be able to beat President Bush in a general election.
"The overriding issue among Democrats in New Hampshire is, `Beat Bush, anybody but Bush,' " said Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center.
But voters also judge candidates by the ideas they convey, Smith said. While Dean's antiwar, anti-Bush message has resonated, he said, so far Clark hasn't conveyed his own points as clearly.
Clark's campaign is taking steps to hone his message and flesh out his positions. He plans a series of substantive policy speeches.
The campaign has also hired a Buffalo firm to produce an initial round of ads, said Bennett, though he's not sure when they will air. Much of Clark's initial fund-raising has gone toward building an organization, he said. 