Kerry wins in Iowa

DES MOINES -- In a stunning turnabout, Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts triumphed in the Iowa caucuses last night, toppling the insurgent antiwar campaign of Howard Dean to win a hard-fought contest that upended the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

"I have only just begun to fight," Kerry said in a spirited victory speech, his wife and daughters by his side. "Thank you, Iowa, for making me the Comeback Kerry."

Just as surprisingly, Senator John Edwards of North Carolina came in a close second, surging from relative anonymity in Iowa just two weeks ago to best the presumed front-runner, Dean, who came in a distant third. Kerry won a strong 38 percent of the vote, including the support of many voters who told pollsters that they decided whom to support within the last week. Edwards was close behind with 32 percent, and Dean had 18 percent. Ninety-eight percent of precincts had reported by just after midnight.

The returns were most devastating for Richard A. Gephardt, who came in fourth at 11 percent and withdrew from the race. But they also dealt a blow to Dean, who raised $40 million on the Internet and rode an early wave of popularity for months. His defeat suggested that thousands of new voters Dean once promised to attract had not materialized. Entrance polling also indicated that Kerry garnered a broad base of support, including people opposed to the war, splitting the race wide open as it moves to New Hampshire.

Even before final results were in, Dean conceded on CNN, but insisted he was not disappointed.

"Look, if you had told me a year ago I was going to come in third, I would have been delighted," Dean said. "I think it's great. On to New Hampshire."

But as he delivered his concession speech a short time later, Dean grew more defiant, his weary voice turning to a growl as he promised he will go on to win. It was the first time Dean had lost an election in more than two decades. "We will not give up," Dean shouted, promising to beat Kerry and Edwards in their home states.

Dean said he called both of the senators and told them, "I'll see you around the corner, around the block, starting tomorrow."

One after the next, Edwards and Gephardt spoke to their crowds, then departed from Iowa after weeks of tough campaigning.

"This campaign, this cause, this movement is about bringing real change to America," Edwards said, his supporters cheering wildly. "You and I can build an America and an image of America that we will be proud of."

"The list didn't come out the way we wanted," Gephardt said. "But I've been through tougher fights in my life, when I watched my 2-year-old son fight . . . cancer and win, it puts everything in perspective. Life will go on, because this campaign was never about me, it was about all of us."

Kerry went last. Given a rousing introduction by Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts at his victory celebration in Des Moines, Kerry took the stage and noted that his triumph came on the heels of the New England Patriots' conference victory. "Last night, the New England Patriots won," Kerry said, his voice raspy with laryngitis. "Tonight, this New Englander won, and you've sent me on the way to the Super Bowl." Kerry continued: "Not so long ago, people had written this campaign off. But in your homes tonight, and community centers, in VFW posts, in restaurants where you never let me stop and eat, in homes, living rooms, and barns where we gathered across this state, you listened. You stood the ground, and on caucus night you stood with me, so that together we can take on George Bush and the special interests and literally give America back its future and its soul."

Pledging to evict special interests from the White House, Kerry said, "We're coming, you're going, and don't let the door hit you on the way out."

Throughout his speech, his supporters interrupted him to cheer, "JK, all the way!"

As giddy disbelief spread through the Kerry and Edwards campaigns, it seemed that Dean's task in New Hampshire had suddenly become much more difficult.

Four in 10 caucusgoers said they made up their minds in the past week. Kerry won 39 percent of them, while 35 percent favored Edwards. Fourteen percent of the late-deciders favored Dean.

According to Iowa officials, about 120,000 people voted, roughly twice as many as participated in 2000.

After losing his grip on front-runner status in the Democratic nominating process many months ago, Kerry had switched strategies to focus on Iowa, a make-or-break gamble that he hoped would catapult him into the lead in the states that follow.

With just one week left until the critical New Hampshire test, Kerry must now translate his success here into meaningful gains in a state where Democrats have generally been more opposed to the war in Iraq. A new Boston Globe/WBZ tracking poll showed that Kerry's surge in Iowa appeared to be capturing the attention of voters in the Granite State. Kerry moved up 6 percentage points to 20 percentage points yesterday, while Dean continued to slip, down to 28 percent, and retired General Wesley K. Clark was down slightly to 21 percent. The survey of 400 likely Democratic primary voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Though polls had put Kerry in first place for days, his supporters seemed almost surprised the victory had come so decisively, and so fast. "The breadth of this victory is complete," one Kerry adviser said. "We made a strategic decision to focus on this state and it paid off royally."

In return, Kerry was the target of fliers that an anonymous rival campaign distributed across Des Moines listing 12 reasons why Kerry could not beat Bush, including one particularly personal attack on Teresa Heinz Kerry.

"As Washington's most eligible bachelor, Kerry's second wife of choice was a Republican heiress who happened to be among the 500 richest Americans," the flier read. It instructed voters to "please think twice before wasting your vote on yet another Massachusetts Democrat."

As the caucuses concluded, Kerry immediately became the focus for Clark, who, like Kerry, is a Vietnam veteran. Though Clark aides were pleased their worst nightmare -- a strong Dean win -- didn't come true, Clark went on the offensive against Kerry.

On CNN's "Larry King Live," where Clark was filmed from his New Hampshire headquarters, former senator Bob Dole told Clark that Kerry was a threat, and that after the Iowa caucuses, "politically, you became a colonel instead of a general."

"Sir," Clark replied, "with all due respect, he's a lieutenant, and I'm a general."

After campaigning virtually alone in the state for weeks, Clark now faces his competitors directly during the intense 7-day stretch before the primaries next Tuesday. Like Clark, Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut has banked his campaign on the Granite State.

Though he has stayed flat in the polls, the former vice presidential contender declared yesterday that he planned to "close with a big finish" by using the Iowa results to his advantage in New Hampshire.

He pointed out that the Iowa contest flipped on its head in the final week.

Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe yesterday suggested the nominating process could stretch into March, a daunting prospect for candidates already strained by the grueling schedule. The campaigns planned to follow tradition with predawn rallies this morning in New Hampshire as they wearily arrived from Iowa.

In a strategic move yesterday, Representative Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio, a liberal who has a core of diehard supporters in certain pockets of the state, announced that he and Edwards had agreed to support each other in areas where the other one was not "viable."

It was not immediately clear whether the deal made the difference for Edwards, who had already been polling strongly in Iowa. Other campaigns said they did not enter into vote-swapping agreements.

Perhaps the most extraordinary aspect of the Iowa campaign was its fluidity: Early on, Kerry had been considered a favorite, then written off, then revived as a viable alternative to Dean before a single vote was cast. Edwards, a first-term senator who had not been counted as a serious factor by the media or in most polls, rose to near the front of the pack within the last week.

The Iowa caucuses were most important for Gephardt, who won them in 1988 but went on to lose the nomination.

Historically, doing well in Iowa has not necessarily meant winning: Although the first President Bush won the Iowa caucuses during his 1980 bid, Ronald Reagan trumped him in New Hampshire, and went on to become the Republican nominee. In 1992, Bill Clinton came in third, then took second place in New Hampshire, where he declared himself the "comeback kid" -- the title Kerry claimed yesterday.

Dukakis, who won the nomination the year Gephardt lost, came in third in Iowa.

Anne E. Kornblut can be reached via e-mail at akornblut@globe

.com.