No inroads seen for Kerry rivals
LA CROSSE, Wis. -- Howard Dean could have hardly found more favorable turf on which to seek a rebound for his presidential candidacy than this state, the birthplace of progressivism. But as Wisconsin voters prepare for their primary next Tuesday, Dean, John Edwards, and Wesley K. Clark are confronting the growing possibility that John F. Kerry's momentum will be too hard to stop.
As has gone the country, so may go Wisconsin.
Even though the Democratic front-runner has not set foot in Wisconsin since June, the state is trending strongly in his favor. Yesterday Kerry picked up the endorsement of one of the state's US senators, Democrat Herb Kohl, and two of its congressmen, Democrats David R. Obey of Wausau and Ron Kind of La Crosse. On Friday, the establishment support will continue, with Kerry set to receive what is essentially a free preprimary campaign commercial: He makes the coveted last appearance by the candidates at a series of economic forums conducted in recent months by Governor Jim Doyle.
"The folks I talk to say that no matter what, they want a Democrat who can beat George Bush. The electability issue is key for them, and my sense is that the further we get into this campaign, the more and more people are going to feel that Kerry is that candidate," said Don Kettl, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "The Dean people had been strong here early on . . . but the Dean collapse in Iowa also led to serious problems here in Wisconsin."
Kettl's analysis is borne out by the latest poll for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Published yesterday, it indicated that the Massachusetts senator has the support of 45 percent of likely Democratic voters, followed by Clark, a former Army general from Arkansas, at 13 percent, and Dean, a former governor of Vermont, at 12 percent. Edwards, a senator from North Carolina, was at 9 percent, while 17 percent were undecided.
The poll suggested that two-thirds of Kerry's supporters made their choice in the three weeks since he won the Iowa caucuses. Dean's placing third behind Edwards was a surprise.
In the 2000 general election, Wisconsin mirrored the divided nation, selecting Democrat Al Gore over Bush by a mere 5,700 votes. Today, it is led by a Democratic governor who clashes constantly with the Republican-controlled House and Senate. The state holds an open primary with same-day registration, meaning anyone with a utility bill can walk into a polling place next Tuesday, register to vote, and pick between the slate of Democrats and Republicans on the ballot. Previously-registered voters and Independents can pick a slate.
Democrats have strongholds in the capital of Madison and in Milwaukee, the most populous city. They also are predominant in cities such as Green Bay in the northeast, Superior in the northwest, and La Crosse, about midway down the western border. Republican territory cuts a diagonal swath across the heartland, running northeast to southwest.
A week ago, Dean laid down a marker in Wisconsin, saying his campaign would effectively end if he didn't win the bulk of the 72 convention delegates next week. He began what could be a $1 million ad blitz on Monday and has been flying between media markets, often appearing on university campuses.
Dean reversed course this week, saying he would continue his candidacy regardless of the results, but in either case, his appeal has been the same. He tells voters than Wisconsinites should not rubber-stamp the results of the 14 primaries and caucuses so far, all of which he has lost. And targeting progressive voters, he is trying to link his candidacy to the tradition of Robert M. "Fighting Bob" LaFollette, a founder of the progressive movement, and two famed liberal Democrats, former senator William Proxmire and the state's other current US senator, Russell Feingold.
"I think Wisconsin voters want somebody who's actually done something and not just making a lot of promises in a stentorian speech," he said in a swipe at Kerry during an interview with KBJR-TV, the NBC affiliate in Duluth, Minn., and Superior, Wis. "If we really need change in America, we're not going to get it by nominating somebody from inside Washington."
Dean garnered local media attention as his rivals campaigned in Tennessee and Virginia, a strategy Clark used to his advantage in New Hampshire as the rest of the field campaigned in Iowa, but now the former governor no longer has Wisconsin to himself.
Edwards came to Milwaukee last night so he would be in the state as the election results poured in from Tennessee and Virginia. Clark visited the southeastern community of Racine on Sunday and was expected to return to Wisconsin this week if the Virginia and Tennessee results did not force him from the race.
Kerry doesn't land in the state until tomorrow. His campaign manager, Mary Beth Cahill, sent out an e-mail yesterday seeking $800,000 in contributions for Kerry's Wisconsin campaign. Hoping to replicate Dean's success in attracting large numbers of small-dollar donors, Cahill asked for a contribution of $72 -- one dollar for each delegate at stake.
Most of the candidates will speak Saturday at the state Democratic Party's annual Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, although Dean will skip it to attend his son's final high school hockey game. All of the candidates are to assemble Sunday in Milwaukee for a forum broadcast statewide.
Glen Johnson can be reached at johnson@globe.com.
