In endorsement race, Kerry holds his own

Despite John F. Kerry's sagging poll numbers in New Hampshire, one of the state's top elected officials defied convention wisdom recently: Manchester's mayor, Bob Baines, publicly embraced the Massachusetts Democrat and endorsed his campaign for their party's presidential nomination.

It was part of a pattern in which 27 prominent Granite State Democrats have thrown their backing to Kerry this year, a half-dozen of them -- including former Governor Jeanne Shaheen -- since his poll numbers peaked in August. That total, according to a tally by the politicsnh.com website, is more than three times as many who are supporting former Vermont governor Howard Dean, and almost twice the number who are backing two other candidates, Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri and Senator John Edwards of North Carolina.

That pattern holds true in Iowa, which kicks off the delegate-selection process with its Jan. 19 caucuses. Kerry is running third in the polls behind Gephardt and Dean, but has gotten the endorsements of 23 of 68 Democrats in the state Legislature, including Mary Mascher, the minority whip of the House, and Senator Dennis Black of Grinnell, whose district includes the Maytag appliance headquarters and its unionized workforce. The total is more than Gephardt's and Dean's combined.

With everything to gain by backing a winner and plenty to lose by not, why would Baines and the others risk their political reputations and clout by backing a potential loser? Instinct, loyalty, and a belief that the decisive phase of the campaign is only beginning, they say.

"Some people have said I'm jumping on the Titanic; I don't feel that way at all," the mayor said in an interview. "I'm supporting someone I think can win and be a strong leader. It doesn't matter to me what the polls say."

State Senator Lou D'Allesandro of Manchester, who threw his support to Edwards despite polls showing him in the single digits, said: "I'm a little guy from a little state who's trying to make just a little imprint on what I think is a great thing."

Politicians regularly debate the value of endorsements, typically unveiled with a glorious speech in which a politician outlines why he or she has decided to back a candidate. The event usually concludes with the endorser and endorsee clasping hands amid the flash of news cameras and the cheer of a handpicked audience.

While the backing of a marquee name can bring a candidate free media exposure, analysts argue that the most valuable endorsements in a Democratic primary generally come from labor unions. They have a structure that can organize the rank and file. They also have experience in voter canvassing, sign-holding, and other tasks requiring manpower.

Kerry argues that his broad, continued string of endorsements is a tangible sign of his campaign's viability. "Why do these institutional players do that?" he asked yesterday during a meeting with Globe editors and reporters. "Because they believe I can beat George Bush, because they want to run on a ticket with me, and because they believe I speak to the sort of uniting part of our party."

In New Hampshire, Dean's backers include Michael King, former chairman of the state Democratic Party and the former House Democratic whip. Gephardt's include Jim Demers, a lobbyist; Peter Burling, the House Democratic leader; and Anita Freedman, a national Democratic committeewoman.

Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut touts the support of a former congressman, Dick Swett, and his wife, Katrina, while former Army General Wesley K. Clark of Arkansas has been shepherded around the state by the former party chairman, George Bruno.

Three candidates, Representative Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio, former senator Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois, and the Rev. Al Sharpton of New York, have not gotten single backer from an unscientific list of 105 top politicos assembled by politicsnh.com, although 23 people are still listed as uncommitted.

Warren B. Rudman, a Republican who served the state as attorney general and US senator, said he is not surprised state political figures are still signing on with what, by some measures, could be considered losing campaigns.

"My sense in New Hampshire, historically, is that people don't particularly pay attention to whom the favorites are. They tend to endorse whoever appeals to them. That's true on both sides of the aisle," Rudman said. "I've seen where people of substance have endorsed people who don't have any chance."

Baines said he decided to support Kerry despite face-to-face requests for his endorsement from Dean, Lieberman, and Clark, because of the grasp of international and domestic policy he has seen both in campaign appearances and on occasions when Kerry hosted members of the US Conference of Mayors to parties at his Washington home.

While the three-term mayor, reelected last month with almost 70 percent of the vote, hoped Kerry would gain support through his endorsement, he said it would not unleash a political army.

"Some talk about my vaunted political machine," he said with a chuckle. "That would be my sister Shirley."

Glen Johnson can be reached at johnson@globe.com.