Can Kerry's campaign message catch fire?
IN 1980, Ronald Reagan won the White House by asking Americans, ''Are you better off today than you were four years ago?'' In 1992, Bill Clinton won the White House with ''It's the economy, stupid.'' In 2004, John Kerry has adopted the ''Two Americas'' theme of his running mate, John Edwards, talking about the ''fortunate America and the forgotten America.''
With less than a week to go before the Democratic National Convention, Kerry remains a presidential candidate looking for the fortunate moment before his message is forgotten.
Even though Kerry is a war veteran while President Bush is not, Kerry's attacks on Bush's handling of the war on terrorism have yet to land a flattening blow. Two polls last week by The Washington Post and The New York Times respectively found that 55 and 51 percent of Americans approve of Bush's handling of the war on terrorism. That is a far cry from the 90 percent approval rating in the Times poll three months after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. But more important in the here and now is that Bush's numbers on that issue have either stabilized or risen slightly in recent weeks. In the Washington Post poll, 51 percent of Americans say Bush is the better candidate on terrorism, compared to 42 percent who think Kerry would be better.
Those numbers are perilous for Kerry because when Americans are asked in polls what is the one issue that will be the most important to them when they vote, the economy is an elusive butterfly, glowing brightly as a potential trump card, yet fluttering away as if to mock Kerry's attempt to net it.
Back in the winter and the spring, when the economic picture was more glum, the economy seemed on the verge of catching fire as the top issue. In a USA Today/CNN poll in March, 65 percent of Americans said economic conditions were more important to their vote than terrorism, compared to 26 percent who said terrorism was more important. In a March Associated Press poll, 35 percent of voters said the economy and jobs was their top issue for November, compared to 22 percent who cited national security and 11 percent who cited the war in Iraq.
It was in the winter and spring that Bush hit his longest drought of popularity for his handling of the economy. His approval ratings in New York Times polls were under 40 percent from February until May.
But with as somewhat better economic news trickled in, Bush's approval rating went back to 42 percent. Correspondingly, concerns about the economy have stopped short of being an overwhelming factor for voters. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll last month, 25 percent of voters said Iraq was their top issue. In second place at 22 percent was terrorism and homeland security. Third was jobs and unemployment at 21 percent. In a poll last month by The New York Times and CBS, Iraq was the top issue over the economy that voters most wanted the candidates debate, by 23 percent to 20 percent.
Most interesting were the details of last week's Washington Post poll. It found that the single-most important issue for voters was the economy and jobs at 29 percent. Tied for second place at 19 percent apiece was terrorism and Iraq.
Since Bush has been so successful at merging the two issues in the minds of Americans (even though Bush himself admitted that there was no tie between Saddam Hussein and 9/11) it is reasonable to consider the two issues represent 38 percent Americans who place that issue above the economy.
There are several other issues that the Democrats have higher credibility on than the Republicans, such as health care and education. But in most polls, such issues currently are hovering around 10 percent in primary importance to voters. The Democratic optimist could take the Washington Post poll and say that the combined 29 percent of voters who say the economy is the most important, the 12 percent who say education is the most important, and the 12 percent who say health care is the most important adds up to 53 percent of voters, and victory. Indeed, the Times poll found that if the election were held today, Kerry would win 49 percent to 44 percent. The Post poll found a dead heat at 46 percent apiece.
But the stabilization in Bush's numbers, despite the continued chaos in Iraq and despite the fact that the economy remains a long way from replacing the jobs lost on his watch, is a warning to Kerry that undecided voters do not yet see a conclusive reason to vote for the challenger. The economy is currently not as bad in the minds of voters as it was during Reagan's or Clinton's runs for the White House.
That means Kerry needs more than a catch phrase. Kerry will have to explain ''Two Americas'' in plain language, lest he once again be accused of being the fuzzy politician with double vision.
Derrick Z. Jackson's e-mail address is jackson@globe.com. 