THE NEXT BATTLEFIELD
With one week left, new sort of scramble starts in N.H.
By Yvonne Abraham, Globe Staff, 1/20/2004
GOFFSTOWN, N.H. -- Good night, Iowa. Good morning, New Hampshire.
The battle for the Democratic presidential nomination moved to the Granite State early today, as a cast of hundreds -- including candidates, aides, volunteers, and reporters -- were set to leave behind the vast plains of Iowa for the chilly cities and villages of New Hampshire. Some planned to arrive in the nation's first primary state as early as 3 a.m.
Every hour is precious: The men who would be president have only seven days to win over New Hampshire voters. The Democratic primary, open to Democratic and independent voters, is a week from today.
The candidates all have clocked plenty of time in New Hampshire already, shaking hands with voters around the state, from Mary Ann's Diner in Derry to the Merrimack Restaurant in Manchester. But the campaign they resume today is different.
"This is the huge deluge coming up," said Dante Scala, associate professor of politics at Saint Anselm College in Manchester. "This [state] becomes the center of the political universe for a week. There's so much going on and so much to do in your last week in terms of organizing efforts and media efforts, it can be like surfing a wave. You're doing the best you can just to stay on the board."
The final week of the New Hampshire primary campaign will be more dizzying than usual because this year's contest is especially competitive -- Wesley K. Clark and John F. Kerry are closing in on Howard Dean in polls -- and it comes so soon after last night's Iowa caucuses.
The latest Boston Globe/ WBZ-TV tracking poll conducted Sunday and yesterday put Dean's support at 28 percent, Clark's at 21 percent, and Kerry's at 20 percent. Kerry surged up from 14 percent, his average support on Saturday and Sunday.
"There will be the most unbelievable barrage of press and candidates New Hampshire has ever seen," said state Senator Lou D'Allesandro, New Hampshire campaign chairman for Senator John Edwards of North Carolina. "I don't think we've ever seen a primary where there were so many people lumped so closely together. It's `Katie, bar the door.' "
The days of lingering handshakes and folksy, get-to-know-you sessions are gone. As of today, a backbreaking schedule and a forest of microphones will stand between the candidates and the average voter.
A couple of months ago, a candidate could walk Manchester's Elm Street, ducking into stores and spending quality time with customers, said Sue Casey, senior adviser to Kerry's campaign. Back then, the Massachusetts senator could expect to be trailed by about 10 aides and reporters.
Now, that walk will bring at least two traffic-blocking, media-filled buses to Elm Street. On the sidewalks, elbow-throwing reporters will surround the candidate in a scrum.
"Suddenly the beauty and the magic of Iowa and New Hampshire, that candidates connect with ordinary people," is gone, Casey said. "It's very hard to do what you want to do here, which is to find every last vote and talk to voters directly."
Reaching those ordinary people over the next seven days is more important than before. Fully 30 percent of New Hampshire voters polled after the primary in 2000 said they made their final decision two or three days before entering the polling booths, said Linda Fowler, professor of government at Dartmouth College in Hanover. In a Globe/ WBZ poll conducted last week, 30 percent of respondents who had chosen a candidate said they could change their minds.
Diane Heiberg, of Manchester, is the kind of voter the campaigns are courting. The 42-year-old definitely will vote, she said as she ate lunch with two friends at Ollie's restaurant in Goffstown last week. But she added that she had not made up her mind.
"I'm getting two or three calls a day," Heiberg said. "My phone is ringing all night. All night!"
Retired Army general Clark and Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut have not had to bother with other campaigns in New Hampshire for a couple of weeks, having skipped the Iowa caucuses to concentrate on the Granite State. That strategy has lifted the fortunes of Clark, whose daily contact with voters has indicated he is surging in surveys of likely voters. Dean, the former Vermont governor, had a commanding lead until recently.
But Clark's honeymoon ends today, analysts predicted, as the other candidates begin chipping away at him over his history of voting for Republican candidates, for perceived inconsistencies in his statements on the Iraq war, and for what they have called his lack of political experience.
"When the rest of the real Democrats come to New Hampshire, it'll be a different game," Kerry spokesman Michael Meehan said.
Clark will be ready, said his strategist, Chris Lehane, who denounced the criticisms as "old-style politics" and threw up Clark's military service as a shield.
© Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.