Health care supplants war as hottest issue
MANCHESTER, N.H. -- As candidates were making their final pitches to New Hampshire voters, the subject that first animated the campaign last summer -- the Iraq war -- took a back seat to meat-and-potatoes issues like the economy, even with the constant troubling news from Baghdad.
Last week, chief weapons inspector David Kay resigned, saying there were no stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. In recent days, six soldiers have been killed in separate attacks. And more Iraqi leaders are challenging the US-backed plan to choose an interim government without direct elections.
But with former Vermont governor Howard Dean and his antiwar candidacy bruised by a third-place finish in Iowa, rivals like Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts and retired General Wesley K. Clark choose to use the news from Iraq in their broader criticism of President Bush's foreign policy. Senator John Edwards of North Carolina has barely mentioned it at all.
"Voters care much more about what happens at home than abroad," said Lisa Lafera, 39, of Nashua. "I think to many voters it's a moot point. It's pointless to talk about whether we should be there."
The polls tend to support Lafera's view: The controversial US-led invasion of Iraq in March is no longer the hot-button issue it once was and now ranks firmly behind domestic issues, such as health care, jobs, and education.
"It's been the biggest change in the primary cycle," said Richard Killion, a professor and pollster at Franklin Pierce College in Rindge. At the outset, "This was all about the war. That was why Dean rose so quickly," Killion said.
This shift from the early days of the campaign -- when the war catapulted Dean to the front of the Democratic pack in the polls -- can be explained in part by the broad agreement on the issue among the Democratic candidates, who, with the exception of the more hawkish Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, have criticized Bush's Iraq policy.
Many voters have also become more disconnected from events in the Middle East, and the capture last month of Saddam Hussein has also changed the election debate, political analysts and some voters said. Nevertheless, the analysts predicted that the recent dulling of the roar over the war will be temporary. They said it is likely to be a major issue in the general election, when the Democratic nominee and Bush spar over what are likely to be clearly contrasting views of Iraq and what needs to be done to stabilize the situation there. The Bush administration has said it will make the president's national security policy a major selling point for his reelection bid.
Of the Democratic contenders, Dean has remained the harshest critic of the war. Trying to ride a last-minute rise in the New Hampshire polls following his relatively poor showing in the Iowa caucuses last week, he kept the war on the front burner yesterday. It appeared to be an effort to rouse longtime supporters who are opposed to the war and to contrast his consistent stance with the other candidates, such as Kerry and Clark, both of whom, many observers say, followed Dean's lead in taking a stronger stance against Bush's Iraq policy. "Lieberman, Kerry, and Edwards made the wrong decision," Dean said at a rally yesterday, referring to their support for the Iraq resolution in October 2002. "I was the only one who stood up a year and a half ago."
He took another swipe at Kerry, criticizing his decision to vote against the 1991 Persian Gulf War -- which Dean said he supported at the time -- while voting for the 2002 war resolution. "I think it should be the other way around."
Kerry responded by saying that his positions have been consistent: He voted in 2002 to threaten the use of force, not to act unilaterally, and said his opposition to the Persian Gulf War was not a vote against the use of force to remove the Iraqi military from occupied Kuwait.
With the exception of Lieberman, "the candidates have largely, broadly agreed on the war, criticizing Bush and suggesting a different strategy," said Paul Begala, a former senior aide to President Clinton and now a CNN political analyst.
Many analysts agree, however, that the debate will be rekindled. "I think it could be an enormous issue in November," said Begala.But if the war turns out to be a relatively low priority for New Hampshire voters today, "this may be a sudden change of dynamic that unfortunately may come at a bad time for Dean," said Killion, the Franklin Pierce professor.
Bryan Bender can be reached at bender@globe.com. Raja Mishra of the Globe staff contributed to this report. 