Unpredictability a certainty in N.H. primaries

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- The regulars at the Merrimack Restaurant figure they've seen it all by now. From their red stools at the counter of this Elm Street political hot spot, they've had front-row seats for recent New Hampshire primaries, and they remember well the shockers of Gary Hart surging, George W. Bush stumbling, and Edmund Muskie appearing to cry.

So forgive them if they're less than surprised by this year's turn of events. Some are even saying they knew all along that Howard Dean's once-commanding lead in the polls would evaporate before primary day, for one reason or another.

"It was just a question of when that would happen," said Jim Connelly, 60, who runs a court reporting business. Connelly often eats two meals a day at the Merrimack, where a wall of framed photographs includes the famous and the footnotes -- Bill Clinton next to Gary Bauer, John McCain a neighbor to Alan Keyes.

"There have been late changes here many times," Connelly added. "There's always a shift."

New Hampshire primary races have long been marked by changing fortunes, surprise finishes, and unflattering moments that define candidates in voters' minds. If past primaries here offer a lesson, it's that the support of Granite State voters is something short of rock-solid until ballots are cast.

"The fall polls just don't matter," said Linda Fowler, a professor of government at Dartmouth College. "One of the roles New Hampshire has taken on itself has been to take a look at the anointed candidate, and say, `OK, show us what you've got. You're the front-runner, and we're not going to take that for granted.' "

Tracking polls have suggested Dean's longstanding lead has been eclipsed in the past week by Senator John F. Kerry, with retired General Wesley K. Clark and Senator John Edwards also running strong. Still, the qualities that attracted many New Hampshire residents to Dean early on -- his forthright manner and no-nonsense style -- have kept a core of support for him intact, despite his disappointing showing in Iowa last week. And longtime observers caution that another major shift is always possible by today.

"It doesn't surprise me anymore," said Mack Leathurby, a marketing director who lives in Londonderry and is a regular customer at Mary Ann's in Derry, another required diner stop on the New Hampshire political circuit. "People wait until the last days."

While New Hampshire often does not choose the eventual winner, the state has been the site of some dramatic political moments. In 1984, Hart hit the target in an ax-throwing competition at a fair the weekend before the primary. He pulled out a win after being 30 points behind Walter Mondale in polls taken a month out.

George H. W. Bush staged a late rally in 1988, to keep Bob Dole at bay after Dole cruised in Iowa and was up late in the New Hampshire polls. In 1992, Clinton famously declared himself the "comeback kid" after a second-place finish in New Hampshire that followed the Gennifer Flowers and draft-dodging accusations. George W. Bush was humbled here in 2000 by McCain, even after Bush romped in Iowa.

"Every cycle is different," said Dan Calegari, a longtime Democratic activist who worked for Hart's 1984 and 1988 campaigns and now owns a window replacement business next door to the Merrimack. "Every presidential campaign has things that are unexpected."

The celebrated New Hampshire independent streak is a major factor in why the campaign can be so volatile, since many voters resist making a final decision until the closing days. New Hampshire often chooses candidates based more on personality than issues, with authenticity valued over policy positions.

"The sale here is very hard to close," said Tom Rath, a longtime Republican operative from New Hampshire and a former state attorney general.

Its first-in-the-nation primary status, of course, gives residents the ability to check the candidates out in person, perhaps several times each. At the same time, the proximity of the Iowa caucuses -- just eight days separate the Iowa and New Hampshire contests this year -- means any judgments New Hampshire residents come to are filtered through a Midwestern farming state with a quirky way of choosing its favorite presidential candidate.

Wayne Loosigian, a 53-year-old Exeter resident, said he was sold on Dean until last Monday's Iowa caucuses. His distant third-place finish there made him reassess that choice. He's now choosing between Dean, Kerry, and Clark.

"I want a guy who can beat Bush, and I was a little surprised with Dean's showing in Iowa," said Loosigian, who works as director of annual giving at Phillips Exeter Academy. "The other quality, which I didn't see initially, is what appears to be a temper."

Loosigian was referring to Dean's postcaucus speech in Iowa, the already-infamous yelping affair that's been replayed countless times on radio and television in recent days. In its impact on New Hampshire voters, the speech may rank with George Romney's 1967 "brainwashing" comment and Muskie's apparently tearful speech outside the Manchester Union Leader in 1972, said Warren B. Rudman, a former Republican US senator from New Hampshire.

"There's always a reason for major change," Rudman said. "It just doesn't happen in a vacuum."

Some voters with a long memory of New Hampshire primaries say they are surprised anyone pays them much attention anymore. After all, this is a state that went not just for Hart in 1984 and McCain in 2000, but Pat Buchanan in 1996 and Paul Tsongas in 1992.

"You can't really read New Hampshire," said Barry LaBonte, 41, a Manchester resident who was at Mary Ann's on Friday morning when Kerry and a pack of aides and reporters swarmed the diner. "Every year we pick the wrong one."

Rick Klein can be reached at rklein@globe.com.