A momentum-making moment
IT WASN'T A BLOWOUT that John Kerry scored in New Hampshire last night, but make no mistake: His was a solid, substantial, important win.
Let's put it in perspective. The victor is a candidate who just weeks ago had been left for dead in the Granite State, a man who trailed Howard Dean by 23 percentage points in a Boston Globe poll in mid-December. In prevailing yesterday, Kerry not only completed an astonishing comeback; he did something only incumbent presidents and vice presidents have heretofore accomplished: scored clear, unequivocal victories in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
Dean, of course, managed a considerable rebound of his own over the course of the past week after the gondola seemed ready to drop completely off the balloon as a result of the Iowa turbulence. Certainly Deaniacs will be left to wonder whether without Dean's overcaffeinated Iowa speech -- or the incredible overkill about it -- he might have caught Kerry.
But again, some perspective. Last night Dean lost in the very state whose support first helped transform him from minor candidate to major contender. Thus it is that the man who a mere month ago was being called a prohibitive front-runner has now suffered debilitating defeats in the first two contests.
Back when he was sitting on an Internet treasure trove, Dean opened his campaign coffers in the hope of burying his rivals early on. Instead, the harsh tone he adopted in Iowa, particularly in attacking Dick Gephardt, helped lead to his own poor showing there. It was, says Gephardt consultant Bill Carrick, a case of political murder-suicide.
Kerry's strong Iowa showing, meanwhile, rearranged the landscape in New Hampshire. And now his Granite State victory makes him the Democrats' clear national front-runner.
That doesn't mean Kerry can't be stopped. Certainly in New Hampshire the senator was less a first love than a second husband, a carefully considered choice. In a field of well-regarded candidates, one big reason Kerry won was that late-breakers felt his military background and foreign policy experience made him the best choice to beat George W. Bush. Whether voters in the Feb. 3 contests feel the same way about the New Englander remains to be seen.
But there's no denying that Kerry has taken a quantum leap forward. In early December the Massachusetts senator had so little going in those states that campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill found herself citing a poll showing him in low single digits to argue Kerry was competitive in South Carolina.
Yet in primary politics, nothing succeeds like success. Surf out of New Hampshire on the cover of the newsweeklies and as the headline story everywhere and the whole dynamic changes. Money starts pouring in. Endorsements fall into place. Volunteers flock to headquarters.
As the campaign shifts from retail to wholesale politics, from long months concentrating on two states to a short week spread across seven, there is nothing more valuable than momentum. And Kerry now claims that most precious of political assets.
Which is why a week from tonight Kerry should be competitive everywhere, with particularly strong prospects to win in Missouri. And why Dean, who once boasted of running a national campaign, is now left to hope for a victory somewhere -- anywhere -- to revive a flagging effort.
Kerry will likely benefit from another dynamic: the basic tie for third between North Carolina Senator John Edwards and retired General Wesley Clark.
Had one clearly outpaced the other, that candidate would have been positioned to consolidate support in the South. However, though Edwards had the momentum heading into New Hampshire and though Clark, once a solid second, stumbled and faded, their photo finish leaves the role of Southern favorite unresolved, at least for now.
Finally, just as Iowa ended Dick Gephardt's hopes, New Hampshire has cast a long shadow over Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman's effort. The "Joe-mentum" he sensed never materialized. And that's why last night was probably the beginning of the end for this decent man's flagging campaign.
Scot Lehigh's e-mail address is lehigh@globe.com. 