Status not set in stone
MANCHESTER, N.H. -- John Kerry's solid win in the New Hampshire primary, coming on the heels of his surprising Iowa triumph, propels him into a monthlong rush of primaries with growing stature and momentum, but still striving to achieve the air of inevitability that attaches to a true front-runner.
Kerry's victory also gives him bragging rights in his personal duel with his fellow New Englander, former Vermont governor Howard Dean, whose passionate opposition to President Bush electrified the electorate over the summer and fall. Now Dean could be derailed onto a parallel track of protest candidacy, a place on the ballot for Democrats to register their singular opposition to the Iraq war.
Kerry and Dean have been like two boys on a seesaw in New Hampshire for over a year. At first, polls showed Kerry to be the front-runner and Dean the nagging insurgent. Then Dean soared while Kerry plunged. Now that votes are finally being counted, Kerry is firmly on top.
"What this shows is that voters feel Kerry is the stronger candidate to take on Bush," said Boston University political historian Michael Corgan. "Dean, with his message of straight talk, has a lot of appeal, especially to voters who are disenchanted with politics. But more reflective voters who don't like George Bush are saying, `Which of the two can beat Bush?' And the answer, increasingly, is Kerry."
Increasingly, but not completely decisively. Dean's campaign portrayed his second-place finish as a comeback from the firestorm of criticism that followed his Iowa concession speech, in which he shouted out the names of states and whooped like a warrior. Last week, Dean shifted to a softer, more personal message, campaigning with his wife and a new theme, "hope, not fear."
Dean finished with a rush of energy, but not enough to push him past Kerry. For Dean to become a serious contender for the nomination, he needs to win somewhere quickly. Next week will be a big test. Some factors play to his advantage: He has demonstrated the ability to raise lots of campaign cash, and fast. More troubling news from Iraq, where six US soldiers were killed yesterday, could give new force to his antiwar message.
"I think he's very honest," one Nashua voter, Peter Klementowicz, said of Dean as he entered the polls. "I actually believe him. He says, `We can't do everything. We have to do the best we can.' "
Next week, neither Dean nor Kerry will be on comfortable terrain. Kerry has benefited from appearing more presidential than Dean. But when the campaign moves south and west next week -- with South Carolina, Missouri, and Arizona the most hotly contested states -- Kerry will be going up against candidates who also stress electability over ideology.
Neither one picked up much strength in New Hampshire. Former General Wesley K. Clark, who bypassed Iowa to focus exclusively on the Granite State, even bumping his poll numbers into the 20s, was locked in a battle for third place with North Carolina Senator John Edwards, far from shouting distance of Kerry and Dean.
Edwards, whose campaign staff had whispered about a final surge in New Hampshire to match his finish in Iowa, was hovering in the low teens with Clark.
In Iowa, where much of the focus was on Dean's harsh critique of the president, Edwards's upbeat message and refusal even to mention Iraq at some appearances played well. It did not go over nearly as well in New Hampshire, where voters tend to reward straight talk over niceness.
Some analysts, including Corgan, believe that Clark, who hails from Arkansas, and Edwards are engaged in a Southern-fried duel to match that of Kerry and Dean. The winner would emerge as the clear alternative to Kerry, with a different profile and regional appeal. And if the Southern alternative cannot beat Kerry, the Southerner who prevails would be first in line to balance the ticket with a vice presidential nomination.
"Clark continues to make missteps," said Corgan, referring to the retired general's difficulty explaining some of his positions and justifying past statements. "Edwards hasn't made any mistakes. He's moving right along. His point is: We just got going in Iowa, New Hampshire is not as receptive a place, and now we're moving to another part of the country."
Connecticut Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, who was trailing both Edwards and Clark, may stay in the race in hopes of a victory next week in Oklahoma, where he has campaigned aggressively. But his distinctive message -- as a centrist unafraid of building alliances with Republicans -- has not played well with frustrated Democrats.
If Lieberman were to withdraw, his supporters could migrate to Kerry, furthering the notion that when voters really think about beating Bush, they keep coming back to Kerry.
Rather than excitement, the Massachusetts senator's campaign is fueled by respect.
Yesterday, Kerry's aura of seriousness, his long political career, and the respect that accrues to a decorated hero of the Vietnam War helped him win over enough late-deciding voters to beat back a serious challenge from Dean.
"I think John Kerry is going to do it," said voter Emiline White of Nashua, as if hoping to convince herself as much as anyone else. "He served his country, and I think he'll make a good president."
