Though small, N.H. may repeat its key role

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- The New Hampshire presidential primary is over. Let the courting of New Hampshire's presidential voters begin.

In the past, such a sentiment would have been little more than lip service. Most years, on this morning the day after the primary, the candidates and the media have departed with little expectation of returning to this little state with only four electoral votes. There are much bigger prizes nearly everywhere else in the country.

But candidates would ignore the Granite State at their postprimary peril.

If Al Gore and Joseph I. Lieberman had gained a relative handful of votes here in 2000, they would be in the White House right now. George W. Bush won in 2000 with 271 electoral votes, one more than needed. If Gore had won New Hampshire, the final total would have been Gore with 270 and Bush with 267. A difference of 7,212 votes would have made the Democrats the victors, notwithstanding what happened in Florida or Gore's home state of Tennessee. Moreover, if there is no third-party candidate such as Ralph Nader, who got about 22,000 votes here in 2000 -- most of them probably taken from the Democratic side -- the race here could be even tighter in November.

The only question this year is whether New Hampshire is really in play in the general election. After a Democratic interlude in which Jeanne Shaheen was

governor, the state has a Republican governor, and the GOP controls both houses of the Legislature. But the state is still relatively split among Republicans, Democrats, and "undeclared" independents. Given the months of Republican-bashing that have gone on here in the Democratic primary, the Bush White House might be more vulnerable than usual. That helps explain why President Bush is visiting here tomorrow, two days after the primary.

Jane Millerick, chairman of the state's Republican Party, said Bush's visit is crucial. "What we have recognized is that New Hampshire is a swing state," she said. Like many Republicans, she is concerned that the lack of a contested GOP primary here has opened the door for a Democrat in the general election, so she has been urging that Republicans make a concerted counterattack.

"Even though we have Democrats talking incorrectly about the president, there are still a large number of supporters for the president, despite the constant attacks by the Democratic candidates," she said.

Dean Spiliotes, visiting scholar at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, said New Hampshire and other small swing states (such as West Virginia and Maine) are becoming much more important because so many states are going "solidly Democratic or solidly Republican no matter what. Any state that has a potential to flip will get intense scrutiny from both parties, and New Hampshire is one of those states."

Indeed, as in the primary, a key to the fall contest is likely to be the independent vote. Even though many independents voted in the Democratic primary, those who supported a more centrist or conservative candidate might be enticed to vote Republican in the fall if they perceive that the Democratic nominee is too liberal.

"If your candidate doesn't happen to win" in the primary, "the game is open again to rethinking who you would like to support" in the general election, New Hampshire's Republican governor, Craig Benson, said in an interview yesterday. Benson said that many voters will be looking anew at the candidates in November, noting that so much might be different in the world by then, from the economy to the security picture.

"Any particular issue could swing the vote one way," Benson said. "The economy could be totally different." While saying that he expected President Bush "to do very well here," Benson added, "I don't think the president takes anything for granted. He will work very hard" for votes in New Hampshire.

As Republican surrogates filtered into the state during the last week, urging voters not to forget that there was also a Republican primary with Bush on the ballot, there was an added benefit for the campaigners. It was widely noted that some of them, such as Senator John McCain of Arizona, Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, and Governor George Pataki of New York might be returning here even after the November election. Whatever happens this fall,

it is never too early to start thinking about the next primary -- in 2008.

Michael Kranish can be reached at kranish@globe.com.