Upcoming ballots are crucial

MERRIMACK, N.H. -- Senator John Edwards of North Carolina was battling for third place last night in the Granite State Democratic primary, far behind John F. Kerry and Howard Dean and neck and neck with retired Army General Wesley K. Clark. Edwards's uncertain showing left him looking to the upcoming primaries in the South and Midwest as must-wins.

Kerry -- with more than triple Edward's vote -- emerged as the front-runner, with a momentum that could boost the Vietnam veteran's chances in veteran-rich South Carolina. Edwards has framed the Feb. 3 South Carolina vote as a litmus test for his self-proclaimed ability to win votes in the South.

"Beyond South Carolina I don't want to make any predictions, but I want to do well," Edwards said on CNN last night.

Edwards's campaign last night said the candidate's New Hampshire showing was respectable given the presence of well-known New Englanders Kerry of Massachusetts, Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, and former governor Howard Dean of Vermont, who finished second.

"New Hampshire has been very good to a visitor from North Carolina," said Edwards to his supporters last night, just as he slipped a percentage point behind Clark. "Ten days ago were were 20 points behind General Clark, and look at what we've done."

Voter Linda Conti, 54, of Portsmouth said Edwards's optimism and charisma made him a viable nominee. "I like his sincerity and positive approach. I think he's a great communicator," Conti said.

New Hampshire was "dominated by New Englanders," Edwards said in an interview last night. The South and Midwest, he said, are a "more level playing field."

Following his second-place showing in Iowa, Edwards raised more than $700,000 on the Internet, as well as thousands more at private fund-raisers. Edwards predicted a similar pace over the next seven days.

Edwards also said he has well-organized staffs in South Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri, New Mexico, Arizona, and North Dakota. In addition, numerous New Hampshire volunteers are relocating to Virginia and Tennessee, which vote on Feb. 10.

Edwards was once the darling of Democratic insiders: charismatic, Southern, and articulate. But in a political atmosphere suffused with national security concerns, the trial lawyer and one-term senator was overlooked for much of the campaign. Often, his New Hampshire crowds were thin, with many here enchanted by Dean.

But then came Iowa: Edwards's last-minute surge there a week ago, landing him second place behind Kerry, clearly bolstered his campaign. Suddenly, his events were standing room only, and his stump speech, sounding the theme of "two Americas" divided along class lines, appeared to connect with many New Hampshire residents.

"He has clearly gotten better," said Jack Fleer, professor emeritus of political science at Wake Forest University. "He's a very disciplined person. He stays on message. He stays positive."

But Fleer wondered about Edwards's gravitas: "I have been detecting some concern about if he knows anything beyond his stump speech."

"If he runs poorly here, anything worse than a close second, it'll damage him badly," said Robert P. Steed, an American politics professor at The Citadel, a military college in Charleston, S.C.

Edwards planned to fly out of New Hampshire late last night and head for Orangeburg, S.C.

(Raja Mishra can be reached at rmishra@Globe.Com.)