Gap Between the Polls and Reality

The pollsters and pundits are still speculating about the various factors that influenced the discrepancy between the projected results and the actual results in the Democratic primary race. I have seen many possible causes advanced, but there is another one that has not been advanced that I think may explain at least a portion of the gap.

One of the things I first noticed when I moved to New Hampshire was that there was a strong tradition of male dominated families, i.e. the patriarchal family was very strong in the state. From my experience as Executive Director of the Pennsylvania Commission for Women, I had learned that with that type of family structure that it wasn’t unusual for the head of the household, the husband, to declare that he was going to vote for candidate X and would expect the other members of his family, a spouse and adult children living at home, to do the same. Even if the wife or other family member wanted to vote for someone else, in order to keep peace in the family, they would give lip service in support of his choice.

With that background for my premise, I would speculate that if they were asked by a pollster whom they supported, they would name candidate X, especially if the head of the family was around or they feared that the information might get back to him. However, in the privacy of the voting booth, they could actually vote for the person of their choice. Now if the heads of enough of these male dominated households said they should support Obama, their family members would tell that to the pollster and inflate his numbers. However, on election day, if their real choice was Hillary, and they voted for her in the privacy of the voting booth instead, you would get a gap of the type that occurred.

I live in New Hampshire and on primary day I carried a sign for Hillary Clinton at the poll. Throughout primary day I sensed that there was something very favorable happening for her. The number of older women voting seemed higher than usual at our polling place. A surprising number of those over 50, most of whom I didn’t know, would give me a thumbs-up sign as they exited the area and usually very inconspicuously at the waist level, rather than the usual shoulder high level. Several came up to me to thank me for being there holding a sign for Hillary. Some of the bolder women would come up and tell me that they voted for Hillary and that they had waited a long time to be able to vote for a woman for President. It was very unusual that people would tell me who they voted for, either directly or indirectly. You could sense the pride and excitement in their action. Many women found their voice in New Hampshire during the presidential primary, not just Hillary Clinton.