The Oddity of Iowa and NH

One of the most unique features of both the Iowa caucus process and the NH primary process is that they are both “open” processes. That means that they both allow people to enter the process at the last moment without pre-registering and that they allow people to switch their party affiliation on the day of the vote. For better or worse, it is different from the way most other states run their elections. Most states have “closed” elections. You have to have registered x numbers of days prior to an election, and Democrats can only vote for Democrats and Republicans, for Republicans. Independents may not vote for either. Candidates in Iowa and in NH can appeal to the Independent voters to switch and support their candidacies in the caucuses or in the primary, or bring in new voters for their events at the last moment. This distorts the results in fascinating ways as we witnessed in Iowa. We don’t get a picture of the voting pattern of the “core” party base in either of these states, and therefore, they are not a very reliable predictor for other states that are closed. But because of their front loading they do have an affect on perception that is disproportional to the small size of the population actually voting. So hang on folks, this race has just begun for both parties. It is going to be a rough and tumble ride for all who remain in the race, and we have lost a few passengers already.