Forecasting, timing cut storm's punch
The Blizzard of 2005 elbowed its way into the record books this weekend with blinding snow, howling winds, and frigid temperatures. But unlike some past major snowstorms, it didn't cripple wide swaths of the state, thanks in part to better forecasting and good timing.
The storm weighed in at No. 5 in the biggest recent snowfalls, with 22.5 inches at the official gauge at Logan International Airport as of 7 p.m. The top storms are the Presidents' Day storm of 2003 with 27.5 inches and the legendary Blizzard of '78 with 27.1 inches. Despite wind-whipped snowdrifts as high as 6 feet in some spots, by early yesterday morning the snowplows were clearing streets, trucks were spraying sand, and people were huddling in coffee shops. Some commuters were even going to the office to catch up on work.
Meteorologists said improvements in science made a big difference in this storm. More sophisticated forecasting models let meteorologists crunch numbers faster, make more accurate predictions, and warn the public earlier.
"We have better tools," said Walter Drag, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Taunton. "That doesn't mean that we don't get misled by those tools, but we wouldn't be close to where we are now. No question."
The blizzard's timing also helped. The storm chased people home early Saturday night and blanketed the area with snow as they slept. Yesterday, many hunkered down to watch football instead of venturing out, giving sand trucks and snowplows room to clear the streets.
"This one hit on the weekend; there's nobody really going to work," said Kevin Lemanowicz, chief meteorologist with Fox 25 News, which had some viewers complain that it over-hyped the storm. "People had plenty of warning. Hopefully they see why we were talking about it so much."
But this weekend's storm paled in comparison to the Blizzard of 1978, which hammered New England over two days with heavy snow and flooding that left 54 people dead, thousands of people in shelters, and $1 billion in damage. The Army and National Guard were called in.
"We're much better prepared to deal with it," said Boston Mayor Thomas M. Menino. "We have a better coordinated staff than in '78. In '78, you had different climate issues. Heavier snow on the tree limbs and the power lines -- those issues were out there."
This storm brought lighter snow that did not bring down power lines and was somewhat easier to shovel and plow. "Almost the entire storm here was light, dry, and fluffy," said meteorologist Harvey Leonard of WCVB-TV (Channel 5).
The Presidents' Day storm in 2003 had similar timing as this weekend's. While the 2003 storm set a record as the highest snowfall in Boston in 110 years, it happened on a holiday, when schools and offices were closed, and it lacked the strong winds and flooding of the 1978 blizzard.
But the measure of the storm depends on where you live. For Cape Cod and Nantucket, meteorologists said, yesterday's storm might be among the worst ever. Power outages were common on Cape Cod and Nantucket. Snowfall was expected to exceed 30 inches. And the snow fell fast: Falmouth had 8 inches in 75 minutes.
"This has to be one of the very best and biggest for Cape Cod," said Leonard.
Hyannis Fire Lieutenant Thomas Kenney, who was an emergency medical technician in Boston during the 1978 blizzard, said this storm hit Hyannis as hard. "It's just as bad, and I think the wind is worse than '78," he said. "The city is crippled. Cars are abandoned and heavy equipment is getting stuck."
It is so bad that the Cape Cod Times is not publishing for the first time in memory, the Associated Press reported. The newspaper, which put out a paper during the Blizzard of '78, published only an online edition today.
Overall, the Blizzard of 2005 made its mark: Saturday's low of minus 2 degrees was 1 degree shy of the record set in 1888, according to the National Weather Service. "It's definitely one to remember," said John Dlugoenski, a meteorologist with AccuWeather, the Pennsylvania-based commercial weather service.
Still, meteorologists said, the advances in science and safety precautions make it unlikely that a blizzard will leave people stranded again as they were 27 years ago. "We'll probably never see that again," said Lemanowicz. "There's so much warning now."
Maria Cramer of the Globe staff and Globe correspondents Madison Park and Matthew Mahoney contributed to this report.Maria Sacchetti can be reached at msacchetti@globe.com 