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Perfect days continue drought, but changes for weekend

Posted by David Epstein  April 17, 2012 02:31 PM

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Another spectacular April day continues. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s and low 80s this afternoon. While we will not break any records today, (Boston hit 87 yesterday breaking the old record of 84), we will see temperatures far above normal. It's becoming routine to have warm dry weather. I tend to think that just when it seems that a weather extreme is never going to break, that is about the time it does break, in a big way. As we head into the weekend, after weeks and weeks of dry mild weather, significant rain is becoming a distinct possibility.

First, the rest of the weeks looks fantastic weather wise. Sunny dry days and mild temperatures will be the case for the rest of the week. Today we will have a high of about 79. Tomorrow looks cooler, around 60 or 62,but still well above the normal. If you have forgotten, we should be in the mid 50s most days this time of year. An occasional day above or below that is expected, this month, we are averaging above normal consistently once again.

Thursday and Friday will be filled with sunshine accompanied by May or early June like temperatures. Once again, highs will be in the lower 70s. Either day is skip worthy, if you have a day to take. I would call the rest of the week perfect for golf.

Drought is severe
All this dry weather has pushed us over the edge in terms of drought. (note the image) We are now in a severe drought and the only reason it's not worse is the time of the year. drought.jpg Take a look along the road and notice the grass is grey or brown. Although we have had warm weather the leaves are not growing as fast as normal. I am having to water my vegetables every few days and the lawn is not growing nearly as fast as it should in mid-April.

Trees not leafing very fast
There is a complex relationship between the roots of the trees and the buds above. The roots are where something called cytokinins are made and then travel into the tree helping to 'tell it' to grow. I suspect that the drought has slowed the production of cytokinins and is why many trees seem to be stuck at the same level of growth for the past month. If we do get an inch of rain this weekend, watch the leaves explode next week.

Changes for the weekend
The weather models are all predicting some beneficial rain to occur this weekend into early Monday. The question, just like during the winter, is what will the exact track and strength of this storm be as it moves up the coast. Ideally, we want a track similar to any major nor'easter in order to get the most rain over the State and the heaviest in eastern Massachusetts.

The picture below shows the position of two storms late this weekend. Storm one will have already gone by, (it's over Canada in this image) and we may still be getting experience rain from storm two (to our south). The jet stream will carry each of these storms up the coast between Friday and Monday. To the left of the center of the storm, about 50-150 miles, is the ideal spot for heavy rain. With 5 days until the rain begins, it's tough to know that exact track, but this is as excited as I have been about the potential for rain since February. Remember, we are over 60% below our normal rainfall, at a time when we need it most. This time of year, we should have had over 13 inches of rain by now. As of today, we have had just about 5.55 inches. That is 7.65 inches below normal or nearly two months worth of rain that hasn't fallen.

coastal.jpg

One last image I want to share today, is the prediction for how much rain will fall this weekend into Monday. The image below is but one prediction from one time. In other words, I could get the same map later today and it will be somewhat different. However, what is significant is that the trend of the computer models has been to forecast rain this weekend. I feel reasonably confident we will receive at least one inch of rain. There are scenarios that could occur, in which rainfall would be as much as two or three inches. Let's hope!

rainthrough mon.jpg

Gardening tip this week.
I put together a video that shows what I am doing in my garden right now and how I prepare the soil for planting. You can also see what I was able to winter over as a result of the mild weather and some minimal protection.


Follow me on Twitter at @growingwisdom and check out my latest videos at GrowingWisdom.com

This blog is not written or edited by Boston.com or the Boston Globe.
The author is solely responsible for the content.

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About the author

David Epstein has been a professional meteorologist and horticulturalist for three decades. David spent 16 years at WCVB in Boston and currently freelances for WGME in Portland, ME. In 2006, More »
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