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Showers by morning, but sunshine returns during the 4th

Posted by David Epstein  July 3, 2012 07:27 PM

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If you follow my blog on a regular basis you know I don't like to hype the forecast. Since tomorrow is a holiday, the forecast becomes more important than usual for everyone. There are events all across the region that the weather, if not good, will impact. The forecast for tomorrow while difficult, is becoming clearer to me. You will no doubt hear many different scenarios as to how the weather plays out from early morning through the evening fireworks. Right now, it looks like a period of showers in the morning, the sunshine with hot and humid conditions followed by a chance of storms, (low chance) for the afternoon into the evening. The rest of the week looks warm, eventually becoming hot and humid again before a cool down next week.

Overnight
A small areas of showers is moving towards New England from the Great Lakes. It appears this area will move through during the early morning hours and exit the coast by 9AM. Temperatures will be mild overnight with humidity increasing to uncomfortable levels by morning. Not everyone will get showers, but some of you could see a brief heavy downpour or hear some thunder. For more updates follow me on Twitter at @growingwisdom and check out my latest videos at GrowingWisdom.com

Independence Day

The showers for the morning mark the leading edge of warm and humid air.4th close.GIF In summer, these large areas of showers that form and rotate on the divide between air masses are called meso convective complexes or systems. Meteorologists simply say MCS or MCC. These systems are very difficult to predict exactly how they will move and how long they last. Below is a colorized satellite from this morning. The red area are very high clouds that are part of the MCS to affect us tomorrow morning. A change in trajectory of just a 50 miles makes a large difference in our actual weather in the morning. Additionally, if the MCS moves very fast, we will have more sun tomorrow. That sunshine will heat the ground and in turn thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon. I can say there is a good chance of some rain in the morning. I am less confident will see any showers or storms after that. Many of won't even get a second round of showers. It's even possible some of you stay dry and miss both chances of rain. Overall, tomorrow will be a very summery day. There will be several changes from sunrise to sunset and into the evening.
sate.jpg

You will notice humidity levels tomorrow and although it won't be record heat, temperatures will be in the mid 80s with some areas to the west getting into the 90s. Depending on how the days plays out, new showers and storms could develop again in the afternoon or evening. I will be updating the forecast later today and again in the morning when we have a better handle on the exact details.

Thursday and the weekend.
Sunshine and warm temperatures return for the end of the week. In addition to the heat, there will be higher levels of humidity, especially Friday and Saturday. Late in the weekend another front approaches and moves through the area. This front could kick off a few showers and storms, but it will bring an end to the heat and humidity. Next week looks cooler and drier.
The map below shows the position of the jet stream for the second week of July. It appears that much of the heat will be pushed far to the south.
gfsx_500p_8e.gif

Gardening this week
Watering is the big issue this week with the garden. Otherwise, my garden is doing quite well this year. I hope your garden is growing great too. I have had a few issues this year, mostly with slugs. Take a look at the video below and watch me give an update of my own garden. I hope it helps you in yours.

Remember, please follow me on Twitter at @growingwisdom and check out my latest videos at GrowingWisdom.com

This blog is not written or edited by Boston.com or the Boston Globe.
The author is solely responsible for the content.

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About the author

David Epstein has been a professional meteorologist and horticulturalist for three decades. David spent 16 years at WCVB in Boston and currently freelances for WGME in Portland, ME. In 2006, More »
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