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A vastly improved forecast

Posted by David Epstein  June 19, 2013 08:12 AM

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No watches, no warnings, no thunder, no rain. Finally, a long stretch of dry weather is on the way. Our wet June pattern is going to quickly transition into a more typical summertime pattern. For at least for the next week any showers that do occur will be more scattered and won't come in torrents of rain. Boston has now had about 9.50" of rain this month, 7 inches over what you would have expected heading into the third week of June. I'll be updating the details of the forecast on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

High pressure, the good guy of the weather world is now taking control and will keep us dry the rest of the week. Highs generally have a cool and warm side and we will be on the cool side of the high into the start of the weekend before moving to the warmer side of the high during the weekend.

When I say “cool side” it does depend on the season as to what cool means. This time of the year cool temperatures will be in the 70s during the day and 50s at night (next three days) while the other side of the pressure system allows readings to reach the 80s during the day and stay at 60F or higher at night (the weekend and early next week).

The other characteristics of a high pressure system are that the moisture levels rise on the left side of the high as the winds on that side turn to the south. hbermuda high pressure.jpg This means that the low humidity we are going to enjoy will be replaced by stickier conditions next week as the system heads eastward towards Bermuda.

So does this mean an end to the cool wet pattern or is this just a break in a weather regime that is destined to take us into July? I would be the best meteorologist in the world if I 100% knew that answer, but I believe the dry warm weather is more of a transient pattern rather than a new established one. What does that mean? Established patterns are those that stick around for weeks or months or even years at a time. We have clearly been in a wet pattern since early May. Within the pattern there are breaks when the weather goes against the overall trend. It’s like the down days in the stock market this year, there have been some big daily losses, but the trend since late 2012 has been up.

We already had our first heat wave of the year in spite of a cool and wet pattern during May and into June. The point is that within these cool wet patterns we can still get heat and humidity. Looking at the model forecasts for the next 30 days it appears that an extended dry warm pattern lasting for several weeks on end will not take hold. Rather, I am looking at a continued fluctuation between some heat, but then back to a day or more of showers and cooler temperatures. This could turn out to be one of those summers where you need to have contingency plans for rain.

For many this is the first weekend the kids will not be in school and it does look quite nice. As the humidity streams north later Sunday a few showers can pop-up. The timing and intensity of any rain is as of yet to be determined.
Gardening this week

With all the rain this month your soil might be water logged. Raised beds are a great way to grow flowers, vegetables, even trees and shrubs when you have limited space or need to create a new growing area. In the following video watch how we create a raised bed for a suburban homeowner. You could do the same thing anywhere by just changing the scale to fit your needs.


I'll be updating the details of the showers on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

This blog is not written or edited by Boston.com or the Boston Globe.
The author is solely responsible for the content.

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About the author

David Epstein has been a professional meteorologist and horticulturalist for three decades. David spent 16 years at WCVB in Boston and currently freelances for WGME in Portland, ME. In 2006, More »
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