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Cooler with more showers on the way

Posted by David Epstein  June 27, 2013 08:00 AM

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Dry sunny weather isn’t in the cards right until later next week. That’s the headline of the weather as we head towards the weekend and the July 4th holiday.
A front brought ocean air to New England yesterday and brought a significant drop in temperature. Boston fell back to the 70s in the afternoon, while inland areas remained in the 80s. Today, I am expecting highs to stay in the upper 60s and lower 70s, a much cooler day for everyone.

I'll be updating the details of the July 4th forecast on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Showers are in the forecast once again and the timing and extent of the rain continues to be a bit elusive. We have some atmospheric energy crossing the region today and this is one of the reasons for the rain. Also, the warmer air to our south will eventually begin moving back towards the region, this will create additional lifting of the air and form more rain.

My neighbor, and good friend, said to me yesterday “They, have been forecast rain for the past three days, but we haven’t have a drop” She likes to emphasize the word they, thereby removing me from the equation. At 83, I give allow her a lot leeway and she returns the favor.

She is correct, I have been forecasting showers for days and not all of you have gotten wet. Some areas have seen copious amounts of rain while others, like parts of Metro west remain rain free. I know it can be frustrating trying to plan in this type of weather pattern. No one wants to move an event inside only to have the sun break through the clouds.

The greatest threat of rain today will be after the evening commute. I expect much of the day to be “dry” although it will feel damp. I can’t say 100% there won’t be a stray shower, but you should feel confident you won’t get a downpour today.

Overnight an area of steady downpours pushes east through the region. Rainfall of up to 2 inches will occur where the heaviest elements of rain fall. Some areas will see only a quarter inch of rain. The Friday morning commute appears to be wet, but the rain could be east of the area before you get to work. We really won’t know for sure what the exact end time for the rain is until late tonight. Temperatures tomorrow will be warmer and it will be more humid. Highs reach back into the 70s to near 80 inland by late in the day. If we see sunshine tomorrow afternoon, that could heat the air and bring another round of downpours for some for the ride home.

There is a flood watch for the area because of the risk of heavy rain. The watch just means it’s possible we will see some flooding, if the rainfall isn’t very heavy, the watch will be taken down. The image below shows areas in green that are under the watch right now.
flood watch friday.png

The weekend
Weekends are big in summer and the two weekends either side of July 4th are perhaps two of the biggest. Here’s what I am sure of for the weekend. It’s going to be muggy, temperatures will reach the lower 80s and there will be many hours of dry weather and some sunshine. What I am not sure of is who will see shower activity. The highest risk for showers will be from about 5 PM to 8PM, but showers can occur outside that period. You might be thinking sarcastically “wow that’s helpful” and I get it. However, in this pattern, it’s about percentages. I would not cancel outdoor plans this weekend, but I would have back-up indoor ones especially for any evening activities. If you never execute the plan, you haven’t lost anything.

The models are indicating a better chance of rain Monday with very soupy air and highs in the 80s. Some lessening of the shower activity is possible for the mid-week period and the 4th, but the forecast so far out is subject to significant changes.
Gardening this week
How are the plantings looking that you have against the foundation of your dwelling? Are they overgrown, too small or crowded? Check out this video in which I show you one foundation planting from start to finish. I added several important tips throughout the video.

I'll be updating the details of the July 4th forecast on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

This blog is not written or edited by Boston.com or the Boston Globe.
The author is solely responsible for the content.

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About the author

David Epstein has been a professional meteorologist and horticulturalist for three decades. David spent 16 years at WCVB in Boston and currently freelances for WGME in Portland, ME. In 2006, More »
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