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No drought with this pattern

Posted by David Epstein  June 25, 2013 10:00 AM

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What a beautiful morning. Itís warm and the sunshine is abundant. Over the next week to 10 days I think it will be important to take advantage of the morning as the chance for rain will increase in the afternoon.

I'll be updating the details of the July 4th forecast on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Living here in New England many of us wait all year for the warm weather, when we get stuck in these patterns of high humidity with scattered showers, it can certainly put a damper on our collective moods.

I want to stress that the upcoming period of weather will have days that are really great. Some days, we might not have any showers between 5 AM and 6 PM only to have the skies open up with a downpour around 7 PM. (times are just samples)

Our heat wave will become official today as temperatures reach the 90s in most places away from the immediate shoreline. A rather steady breeze this afternoon will bring some relief from the heat and as clouds increase prior to any showers temperatures can fall back a few degrees.

Like yesterday, not everyone will see showers and thunderstorms. The least likely areas to get wet will be along the coast. The greatest chance for showers will be north of the Mass Pike and into New Hampshire and Maine. If you do experience a storm this afternoon there will be heavy rain, possible hail and gusty winds. Of course lightning is also always a concern during thunderstorms.

Wednesday will be another hot and humid day with that chance of storms again for the afternoon. As the storms cross the area heavy rain and street flooding can occur. Getting caught in one of these storms wonít be fun, so have back-up plans ready to go. Highs should remain under 90F tomorrow, but it will still feel quite hot with the tropical moisture.

Thursday may end up being a mostly dry day. While I canít rule out any storms over the entire region, the chance looks like it will decrease. As we head into the weekend, showers and storms become more likely with the pattern of dry mornings and wetter afternoons or evenings becoming firmly entrenched. The driest part of the area will be Cape Cod, which is good news since so many of you end up taking your vacation time there. The wettest areas will be west of Route 495 and into northern New England.

This pattern is courtesy of what meteorologists call a trough in the upper pattern. Troughs are dips in the jet stream that allow warm moist air and cooler drier air to mix along the path of the trough. This type of flow can leave areas on the moist side with a lot of rain (snow in the winter). In many ways our winter pattern hasnít really broken down yet. What we are continually seeing are areas of moisture riding along the jet stream and kicking off afternoon and evening storminess.
moist july.png

You are probably wondering when this pattern will change and we will see fewer days with rain. Both of the major models we use for medium and longer range forecasting keep this type of weather around through the 4th of July. Since that is 10 days away, I canít go out any further, but feel reasonable confident we arenít seeing a week of dry days any time soon.

Gardening this week
How are the plantings looking that you have against the foundation of your dwelling? Are they overgrown, too small or crowded? Check out this video in which I show you one foundation planting from start to finish. I added several important tips throughout the video.

I'll be updating the details of the July 4th forecast on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

This blog is not written or edited by Boston.com or the Boston Globe.
The author is solely responsible for the content.

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About the author

David Epstein has been a professional meteorologist and horticulturalist for three decades. David spent 16 years at WCVB in Boston and currently freelances for WGME in Portland, ME. In 2006, More »
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