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Tricky forecast brings possible rain

Posted by David Epstein  July 24, 2013 08:15 AM

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Another tropical morning is underway across the area. Again, there are high levels of humidity after an uncomfortable night of sleeping without air conditioning. There are many challenges to the forecast from now through the weekend. Some of these challenges are large while others are small.

I'll be updating the details of the weather on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

First, we have drier air on our doorstep. In Albany, the dew points are in the 50s and skies are partly sunny. That dry is slowly making its way east and will be here later today and this evening. The leading edge of the dry air is marked by a cold front. The front is moving at a snail’s pace so the exact timing of its passage isn’t easily predicted.

Being on the warm side of the front, for much of the day, means we will experience another hot and humid afternoon with highs well into the 80s. As the front pushes through, there could be a quick pop-up shower, but the chances are low it will happen.

The front will pass offshore this evening and all areas will enjoy a much more comfortable night. I can’t remember the last time I forecast anyone to have temperatures fall into the 50s, but that is exactly what we have for Thursday morning. Even Boston will see low temperatures in the lower 60s.

My next forecast challenge comes quickly tomorrow and Friday. This slow moving front is going to stop and get stuck just offshore. Fronts that get stuck are perfect breeding grounds for clouds and precipitation.weekend issues.bmp Areas of both will ride northward along the front. The image below shows what the radar could look like, according to one computer Model, later tomorrow evening. Notice all the rain just off the entire Atlantic coast. Any slight deviation westward pulls all that rain into eastern New England. This is a real possibility and will have to be watched carefully. If we end up with rain, it would tomorrow afternoon into Friday afternoon. The best chance for rain is of course closer to the coast. Temperatures tomorrow will be much cooler.
trouble t to fri.bmp

Along with the chance for rain will come more cloudiness. Neither Thursday nor Friday will feature bright blue skies, but at least it won’t be hot and humid. It just seems like we can’t get a string of nice days this summer. It’s either too hot, too humid, too cloudy or too wet.

There will be a quick period of dry air for Saturday when there will be some sunshine and pleasantly warm temperatures. I don’t expect much humidity on that day either. Sunday another front approaches from the west and brings a few more clouds and the chance for a shower or storm. Highs will be back in the lower 80s.

Gardening this week
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I'll be updating the details of the weather on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

This blog is not written or edited by Boston.com or the Boston Globe.
The author is solely responsible for the content.

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About the author

David Epstein has been a professional meteorologist and horticulturalist for three decades. David spent 16 years at WCVB in Boston and currently freelances for WGME in Portland, ME. In 2006, More »
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