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A few showers are no big deal, but upcoming cold means business

Posted by David Epstein  November 21, 2013 09:55 PM

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Temperatures are still in the 40s at this hour. Winds have flipped to the south and temperatures won’t be nearly as chilly as they have been the past several nights. Friday brings more clouds and a quick period of light showers will bookend the day.

I'll be updating the forecast for the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

The first round of showers comes from a warm front in the morning while the second batch of showers results from a cold front at the end of the day.

The morning showers look slightly more widespread than those later in the day, but neither bring much in the way of water. As you have heard me say since late September we need rain badly. The image below shows the radar forecast for about 10AM Friday.
radar Friday.png

Saturday brings more sunshine and chilly air. Temperatures will reach the lower 40s, but with a gusty wind, it’s going to feel quite chilly in spite of the blue sky.

Our third round of Arctic air this fall hits on Sunday with a blustery day and temperatures more like late December. Highs on Sunday are going to stay just below freezing much of the day. Some areas may not get out of the 20s!

If you are headed to the Patriots game be sure to bundle up and bring that lap blanket. With temperatures staying under freezing for so long the ground is going to continue to freeze. While I am not forecasting any major snow right now, it might be a good idea to put in the snow stakes Saturday. There is a chance when the ground freezes this weekend, it might not thaw before we get our first plowable snow. One year I didn’t get the markers in the ground before it froze and I ended up having to run around with a kettle of boiling water thawing little holes in the ground to put the orange things in the soil.

Monday continues the trend of cold and dry weather with sunshine and afternoon readings well below late November normals.

By now many of you might have heard about a possible storm in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. There are still many uncertainties with any potential storm including whether or not it’s even going to happen in the first place.

Th European model and American’s global model are forecasting very different solutions for the atmosphere will behave next week. The Euro last winter was certainly the more accurate of the two, but this fall the Euro has not been performing as well as previous months. While one model has a significant storm Tuesday or Wednesday the other has nothing more than a sprinkle or snow flurry.

Being able to travel smoothly next week is critical for millions of people all across the northeast corridor. A rainstorm would slow things down quite a bit, but a snowstorm would create havoc. Presently, my best forecasting intuition is telling me there won’t be a storm. However, it’s Thursday night (as I write this) and a lot can still change.
The dry pattern of the past three months is going to break at some point and it’s going to happen sooner rather than later, whether the change occurs next week or sometime in early December, our days of storm free weather are likely numbered.

Around the House This Week
I know some of you are already thinking about Christmas trees. Did you ever consider there are great trees you can add to the landscape that make great Christmas trees? Even if you don't decorate the tree, it will still be a wonderful addition in the landscape.


I'll be updating the forecast for the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

This blog is not written or edited by Boston.com or the Boston Globe.
The author is solely responsible for the content.

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About the author

David Epstein has been a professional meteorologist and horticulturalist for three decades. David spent 16 years at WCVB in Boston and currently freelances for WGME in Portland, ME. In 2006, More »
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