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A nice weekend before colder air next week

Posted by David Epstein  November 15, 2013 08:31 AM

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Did you catch the sunset last night? I was out of breath running back into the house from raking leaves, finding my cell phone and then running up to the farm to take this picture. It didn't even look real for a few minutes. I think the sunsets have been amazing this fall. It's of course luck of the draw, but also the sun's angle is different and with no leaves on the trees, the views are better.Sunset Natick Dave Epstein.jpg

I'll be updating the forecast for the weekend on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

Changing focus
This time of year the focus of the weather forecast changes. In the summer I feel like everyone wants to know the weather for outdoor activities such as going to the beach, golf, or baseball. This time of the year the focus shifts to can you rake the leaves in dry weather, when will the mountains get some snow, and will it snow in the city enough for a parking ban or traffic to become an absolute nightmare.

Most, if not all of us, have started using supplemental heat to stay warm and cold snaps can impact our wallets. I have a friend in the oil transportation business, he loves cold weather. In my world, the warmer the weather stays in late fall and early winter, the less money I am spending on heat.

This weekend
Keeping this in mind, let's get to the weekend forecast. You already noticed how much milder it was Thursday from the day before and today will better those readings by a degree or two. I expect most areas to reach 51 to 56F this afternoon under sunny skies.

If you are headed out this evening it won't be very cold. Around 8PM temperatures will have fallen into upper and middle 40s, headed down to the middle 30s by Saturday morning.

Both Saturday and Sunday will be mild with highs in the lower to mid-50s. Sunshine is most prevalent on Saturday with a noticeable increase in clouds during Sunday. The clouds represent an upcoming change back to colder weather for next week. HIghs Saturday.png The map shows highs for Saturday. Sunday's highs will be similar, but there will be a lot of clouds around so it won't feel as warm.

Early next week
Sunday night through Monday night a couple of cold fronts will approach and cross the area. The air ahead of these fronts will become increasingly moist and showers will break out. The best chance for showers is Monday, but I am not expecting a lot of rain.
The map below shows how much rain is forecast to fall through Monday. Southern New England doesn't receive more than half an inch from the upcoming rain and many areas get even less. Thru Monday.png It's been a very dry period since October and there are no signs of any major amounts of precipitation of rain or snow ahead after the showers late this weekend and early next week. This drought is still going strong.

On Tuesday, as the colder air works into the area temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 40s. Even colder air arrives for midweek with next Wednesday looking very similar to the one we just finished. Highs on the 20th will not get out of the 30s across much of New England.

The map below shows one models (the GFS) predicted temperatures for that day. Notice how the cold air is settled into the mid-Atlantic region.
Highs weds.png
Long Range
Beyond mid-week temperatures will recover for next weekend before falling again for Thanksgiving. Since the holiday is still about two weeks off a lot can change. I'll start giving the forecast for Thanksgiving week early next week in a general format of warm or cold, dry or wet. As we get closer I can refine the details more.

Gardening this week

 This week my video is on raised beds and how they can help extend the season.  I show you several ways you can use raised bed or cold frames to allow your gardening to start earlier and end later each year.



I'll be updating the forecast for the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

This blog is not written or edited by Boston.com or the Boston Globe.
The author is solely responsible for the content.

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About the author

David Epstein has been a professional meteorologist and horticulturalist for three decades. David spent 16 years at WCVB in Boston and currently freelances for WGME in Portland, ME. In 2006, More »
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