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Dry, but much colder today and Wednesday

Posted by David Epstein  November 19, 2013 08:00 AM

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What a day yesterday turned out to be. Just after 2PM the high temperature in Boston was reached at a whopping 67F, while not a record, that was 72F, it was still an amazing afternoon. It's back to reality this morning with a brisk breeze bringing much colder air to the area. Temperatures this afternoon will be a full 25 degrees colder than yesterday taking us from spring to winter in a few hours. As cold as today will feel, this is but a taste of what's coming.

I'll be updating the forecast for the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

During the fall temperatures trend downward. What happens is that we have these roller-coaster rides of mild air and cold air, but each time the mild spell isn't quite as warm or long lasting and the ensuing cold shot becomes cold and lasts longer. Finally, we don't really have any more mild days and the cold becomes firmly entrenched for winter. In different years there might be a mild spell or two in December, but generally, by the time get to the twelfth month it's just cold.

Tomorrow is the peak of this cold shot before the air moderates again Thursday and Friday. Highs for hump day won't hit 40F, while Thursday and Friday readings will be back into the 40s and even around 50F Friday.

Saturday, a very strong front will approach from the west. Behind this front another shot of cold air will hit the area. This air is of arctic origin and I believe will be the coldest of the season thus far. Most areas will stay locked in the lower and middle 30s for Sunday and Monday and some spots won't even break the freezing mark Monday afternoon. At night, teens will be commonplace and the ground is going to freeze. This is likely not our permanent freeze of the ground, but it could be pretty close.

Next week is a huge week for traveling. It's still very early in the forecast game, but early indications are for cold dry weather Monday through Thursday. I expect the coldest days to be Monday and Tuesday before a moderation of temperature for Wednesday and Thursday. Whether or not another shot of cold air moves in for "Black Friday" or not is still a big question. A forecast so far out is difficult to achieve much semblance of accuracy. The timing of any changes will not be set in stone until we get much closer to the 29th of November.

The graph below shows temperature and precipitation forecast from the GFS model for Thanksgiving week. The chart goes out to the big travel day on Wednesday This will no doubt change, but at this time there are not big storms in the forecast. The pattern is such, so a big coastal storm isn't likely to just pop-up on the models in a few days. It's not impossible, but I feel reasonable confident for cold and generally dry weather during the holiday.
t-day week.png

Around the House This Week
I know some of you are already thinking about Christmas trees. Did you ever consider there are great trees you can add to the landscape that make great Christmas trees? Even if you don't decorate the tree, it will still be a wonderful addition in the landscape.


I'll be updating the forecast for the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

This blog is not written or edited by Boston.com or the Boston Globe.
The author is solely responsible for the content.

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About the author

David Epstein has been a professional meteorologist and horticulturalist for three decades. David spent 16 years at WCVB in Boston and currently freelances for WGME in Portland, ME. In 2006, More »
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