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Gusty showers end this morning with spring-like temperatures

Posted by David Epstein  November 18, 2013 06:11 AM

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The sound of rain pelting against the roof woke me up a bit early this morning. It was a good sound as the rain is quite welcome. It won't be enough to get the ground very wet, but I'll take it.5AM Temps.jpg

I'll be updating the forecast for the week and Thanksgiving on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

You might have noticed your heat didn't kick on as often or at all this morning. Temperatures rose into the 60s during the night and it feels like a spring morning. The image shows a round-up of readings at 5AM. Don't get use to this, we have been a bit spoiled since Friday, but the colder air is coming.

Our last cold snap lasted about 2 days. Last Wednesday, temperatures didn't make it out of the 30s. I expect last Wednesday will remain our coldest day of the fall through this week, but we won't see anymore 50s or 60s.

A cold front is slicing through the area this morning. The front marks the leading edge of colder air. Sometimes when a front passes, it takes many hours for the cold air to become entrenched. This will be the case today. After the front passes, it will remain mild for one last day of mild air. usa temps.jpg Temperatures will remain in the 60s for much of the day before falling back this afternoon. This picture shows temperatures around the country early this morning. Much of the cold air is still back in the Dakotas.

The showers will be ending about the time the commute is finishing and it will become partly to mostly sunny afterwards. The image below shows what the radar is forecast to look like at about 10AM this morning. 10 am RADAR.pngYou could check the actual radar at that time and see the accuracy of this short-range model . I find it does pretty well.

Winds will be strong along and just after the front before slowing day later. As the sun goes down later this afternoon temperatures will begin to tumble and by Tuesday morning, most of you will see readings in the 30s. Sunshine will be the dominant feature in our weather until Friday when the next cold front slices through.

The front forecast to impact our weather at the end of the week and the start of the weekend, will being rain and perhaps a few snow showers to the area. Behind this front, on Sunday, cold air will bring a blustery, December like day to the region. Right now, it appears highs on Sunday will be in the 30s.

Next week is a huge week for traveling. It's still very early in the forecast game, but early indications are for cold dry weather Monday through Thursday. I expect the coldest days to be Monday and Tuesday before a moderation of temperature for Wednesday and Thursday. Whether or not another shot of cold air moves in for "Black Friday" or not is still a big question. A forecast so far out is difficult to achieve much semblance of accuracy. The timing of any changes will not be set in stone until we get much closer to the 29th of November.

The graph below shows temperature and precipitation forecast from the GFS model for Thanksgiving week. It's a first look at what the weather could be then. This will no doubt change, but at this time there are not big storms in the forecast. The pattern is such, so a big coastal storm isn't likely to just pop-up on the models in a few days. It's not impossible, but I feel reasonable confident for cold and generally dry weather during the holiday.
GFS Turkey Day.jpg
Around the House This Week
I know some of you are already thinking about Christmas trees. Did you ever consider there are great trees you can add to the landscape that make great Christmas trees? Even if you don't decorate the tree, it will still be a wonderful addition in the landscape.


I'll be updating the forecast for the week on Twitter at @growingwisdom Please follow me there. Feel free to comment or ask questions too.

This blog is not written or edited by Boston.com or the Boston Globe.
The author is solely responsible for the content.

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About the author

David Epstein has been a professional meteorologist and horticulturalist for three decades. David spent 16 years at WCVB in Boston and currently freelances for WGME in Portland, ME. In 2006, More »
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