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Weather Wisdom

Heavy overnight rain eventually leads to warm air

April is ending with a feeling more like early March than a few hours before the start of May. This month 13 days will go into the record books as below the average with 2 days coming in exactly average. The other 15 days have been above long term averages. While itís been cold the past week, when all the data is in this month will pretty much end up right around average or slightly above. Nature tends to balance itself over the long-term.

One of the reasons it seems like such a cold month is we are ending on a cold note. We tend to remember the most recent days and forget the week of warmth which occurred from roughly the 7th to the 14th of April.

For today and interesting record is the record temperature for the chilliest high temperature on the 30th of April. Back in 1909, the temperature only reached 40F and with todayís temperatures in the lower 40s most of the day, we were basically at the cold end of the temperatures curve for this date.

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The next 24 hours will feature some wild shift in the weather with temperatures going up overnight along with a steady rain and embedded downpours.

This rain will continue into the first part of Thursday and is caused by a warm front pushing north. As this front passes, the rain will taper to showers, temperatures will rise into the 60s and there could be a few breaks in the clouds.

While the first part of the morning commute may be wet, the trend is going to be for the rain to end and become more showery.

The image below shows projected radar for 11AM Thursday. When I review these model images I look at special patterns and trends not at specifics. Itís highly unlikely the shower you see south of Boston will be there at that time, but it give me an idea most of the heavier rain will be gone with a few lingering showers.

11 am Thurday.png

Also notice to the west the absence of any rain. This indicates a smaller chance of showers in the afternoon west of Worcester. While the radar doesnít have showers there, it doesnít mean one might not pop up as a cold front runs into the mild air. The next radar image is for 3PM and shows some shower activity.

3 Pm Thursday.png

The projection also indicates if showers occur in the afternoon they could become thunderstorms and have a few heavy downpours.

The Friday and weekend weather will be a vast improvement beyond our weather the past several days. Sunshine will be more prevalent and although you will hear or read about showers in the forecast, the chances are low and the duration of any rain brief.

Temperatures will be at least 20 degrees higher than the past few days making it feel much more like early May. The nice weather will continue into the first half of next week with a blend of clouds and sunshine. Most days will average in the lower 60s with overnight lows in the 40s. I donít see any conditions which could bring a late frost to the area right now. Boston is now beyond the average days of the last freeze so any weather that did produce a frost or a freeze would be accompanied by the appropriate warnings.
Iíll be updating the forecast on Twitter @growingwisdom.