Memorial Day weekends arenít often the best three days of weather and this year will follow the trend. May in general can be a fickle month with cool ocean air, drizzle and clouds. Of course May can also provide summer heat and humidity with temperatures of 90F or higher. This year we havenít seen much in the way of heat or humidity and that trend looks to continue for the most part as we enter the final week of the month.
A few things have changed with regard to my forecast for the weekend and some things havenít. The risk of showers remains in place for today, but most of the activity should be confined to west of Route 495. This doesnít mean Boston doesnít see any rain, it just appears the bulk of the rain will be over the western part of the state. Also, showers and storms will fire up in southern New Hampshire this afternoon and early evening.
The image below shows the hi-resolution modelís prediction for 7PM tonight. Notice the immediate Boston area is dry, but there are showers north and west of the area. Some of these could contain some heavier downpours.
Late at night the shower activity diminishes leaving us with a lot of clouds and comfortably cool readings. Sunday is the day I am making some changes to the forecast. The chance of rainfall is going to be higher than I thought a couple of days ago. This means you could see some showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and unlike the past few days, eastern areas of the region will be the focal point for the wet weather.
Letís look at a radar prediction for tomorrow around 2 PM. The orange area represents a cluster of heavier showers and thunderstorms moving south.
The location of these showers isnít likely to end up exactly there, but it does show an area of rain threatening the region. While you will likely see some sunshine mixing with the clouds Sunday, the afternoon hours will bring the threat of showers and storms. Not everyone will see these, but if you do, they could be strong.
Memorial Day still looks like the best day of the weekend with temperatures soaring to the 80s over much of the region. Even Cape Cod and the Islands will reach the 70s on Monday making for a very summer-like afternoon.
The heat doesnít last very long. By Tuesday a backdoor cold front will move in from eastern Maine and drop our temperatures back to the upper 60s to mid 70s. There will be a chance of showers on that day as well. Much of next week looks seasonable, but temperatures will be on the cooler side of average.