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Weather Wisdom

Rain this afternoon, but super weekend weather coming

I love days like today, not too many of them, but a few are great. We need regular days of rain and the clouds and cool temperatures tend to slow my pace. Todayís rain is thanks to a low pressure area sliding out sea south of the area. If this was winter out snowfall map would show the heaviest snow over southern New England with lesser amounts to the north.

Of course, itís no longer winter so we just have a rainy day with a cool air mass. Amounts of rain will range from a quarter of an inch in southern New Hampshire to over an inch around and south of the Massachusetts Turnpike.

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The map below represents the radar prediction for around 5PM today. Notice by then the bulk of the rain has ended over western New England, but there is still rainfall across eastern areas. This will continue to move out to sea so all areas should see an end to the rain by sunset. It might continue a bit longer over Cape Cod and the Islands.

5pm hrr model.png

Just like in winter, the models donít always agree with how much rain is going to fall today. At this point in the day, I am just watching radar trends and using the HRRR model, which is one of the higher resolution models we have at our disposal. While it is a newer model, itís not necessarily the best. Nonetheless, I tend to favor the trends it shows.

Take a look at the map below which shows how much rain is expected to fall today. Notice there is a swath of heavy rain from Boston southwest back through parts of Connecticut. Nantucket looks to be in a hole of sorts and there is less rain north and west of the Massachusetts Turnpike and Route 495.

total rainfall.png

Iíll be updating the forecast @growingwisdom on Twitter.


Letís compare this with what we have so far. The map below estimates how much rain has fallen since it began. The key is on the right. Notice the heavier pocket further north. This is an indication the models are likely suppressing the rain too far south and that those of you north of the Pike could see more rain than is expected.

rainfall.png

For most people if you got three quarters of an inch of rain instead of just a quarter you probably wouldnít even notice. However, if this was winter, my forecast of 1 to 3 inches of snow would be turning into a 6 to 8 inch storm for those of you north of Boston.
As the storm passes out to sea later this evening drier air will filter into the region and skies will clear a bit by morning. Tomorrow will turn out to be a partly sunny day with warmer temperatures as highs reach back into the lower 70s.

The weekend is looking stellar with sunshine and warm readings. Highs will reach the 80s inland and 70s along the immediate coast both days. Humidity levels will be low, so if you are going to the beach and go into the water it will feel cool when you come out.
The nice weather continues into early next week with the next risk of showers not until Tuesday or Wednesday.