A rather wet and muggy day is in store for southern New England today as warmer and more humid air to the south attempts to move north and clashes with the cooler marine air now over the region. This is going to be one of those days when itís just cloudy at times and then you get a downpour and then itís drizzling and then itís cloudy again. The amount of rain should generally be around a quarter to three-quarter of an inch, but if your area sees some heavier downpours those amounts will become higher.
There wonít be any flooding with this rain (except perhaps some street flooding) and while you could hear some thunder no severe weather is part of this system for our region.
As the front lifts further north, the heavier showers will tend to move into New Hampshire and Maine later this afternoon. While it wonít clear, there is a good chance of some drier periods for the second half of the afternoon and early evening meaning if you can deal with wet ground, evening activities might be able to still happen.
The Red Sox are playing this evening and with some rain delays they still could get the game played, but Iíll have a better idea on this later this afternoon when we see how far north those showers have actually moved.
The weekend is a very tough forecast for two major reasons. First, the front and associated showers moving east tomorrow has the potential to slow enough to keep showers and clouds in the forecast all day. The most likely areas for this to happen would be along eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island from Route 95 east. The further west you live, the better opportunity for sunshine.
Right now, I am forecasting clearing to push into the Boston area during the afternoon. However, there is a chance, letís give it about 40%, that the clouds linger all day and even the risk of showers. Highs tomorrow will get back into the 70s, but we likely wonít see any widespread 80 degree readings.
Second is the forecast for Sunday. As the front does push off the coast a storm, just like a mini noríeaster is forecast to form on the front. The European model has this storm close enough to bring clouds and rain to eastern New England for Sunday.
The GFS also has the storm, but keeps it just far enough east to spare us a wet day, but clouds could be a factor over outer Cape Cod. Right now I am keeping Sunday a great day with abundant sunshine and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. If other models come in line with the Euro this afternoon, this forecast is going to make a 180 degree turn.
So what should you do? I will update the forecast later this afternoon and evening and give you an idea on what might change for Sunday. I am hoping the rain for Sunday is just a blip on the European model cycle, but wishcasting sometimes doesnít work too well.
Iíll be updating the forecast @growingwisdom on Twitter.
Not that youíll see it, but there is a full moon tonight which is of course Friday the 13th. We donít have another full moon on a Friday the 13th until 2049. I shudder to think how old Iíll be by then!